Emini Bulls Want 2nd Leg Up from April 9 Breakout

Trading Update: Thursday May 1, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini yesterday formed an outside up bar, closing on its high. The bulls continue to get buying pressure for the second leg up after the April 9th breakout.
• Bears are hopeful that they will be able to end the rally. However, the market will likely go sideways until the Bears can halt the buying pressure.
• This means that the bears need to start collecting bear bars closing on their lows and ideally consecutive bear bars closing on their lows if they convince the bulls to exit.
• The April 9th bull breakout bar is essential; therefore, the bulls are hopeful that they will be able to get a measured move up from the April 9th breakout bar, which would project near the 6,000 big round number.
• At the moment, the market is always in long, and the bears need to do more to convince the bulls to exit.
• The Bulls will likely be disappointed today, and today will probably not be a strong follow-through bar. This is partly due to the weekly chart forming a large outside up bar last week.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The open of the US session gapped up and went sideways for the first 9 bars of the day.
• The Bulls are getting a 9-bar bull micro channel up to bar 12 in a bull breakout of the tight trading range. They are hopeful this is the start of a small pullback bull trend day.
• Because the market has been so far away from the moving average for many bars, the odds are we’re probably going to pull back to the moving average fairly soon. This means there’s an increased risk that the market will have to go sideways or down to drag the moving average up to the current price.
• Traders who want a higher probability of the day becoming a small pullback bull trend day should wait and see two open gaps. Although the rally up to 12 is strong, it’s not enough to conclude that today is going to be a trend day, and the rally up to 12 may be a failed breakout of the bar 5 high.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Open house video recording to be posted here early Friday.

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See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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