Trading Update: Wednesday September 13, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini triggered a low 1 yesterday by falling below Monday’s low. There are probably buyers below Monday’s low for a scalp. This means that today may rally, allowing bulls to make a scalp buying below Monday’s low.
- If today does rally, traders will pay attention to how determined the bulls are. If the bulls scalp out and the market sells off after any rally, that would be a sign of a lack of conviction by the bulls.
- Low 1 setups often have buyers below and lead to deeper pullbacks, followed by trend reception in the direction of the Low 1. This means the market may go above Monday’s Low 1 and try to form a second entry short in the next couple of days.
- The bears are hopeful that the breakout below Monday’s Low 1 short will lead to a strong bear breakout, trapping the bulls who bought Monday’s Low 1.
- Overall, traders will pay close attention to how determined the bulls are to buy below Monday’s Low 1.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market has gone sideways in a tight trading range on the 60-minute chart for most overnight hours.
- The CPI 8:30 AM EST Report led to a failed bear breakout and reversal. This means the market may try to rally into the U.S. Session.
- Traders should assume that the open will have a lot of trading range price action.
- In general, there is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
- This means that traders should consider not trading the first 6-12 bars unless they are confident with limit order trading and making quick decisions. By waiting for 6-12 bars, a trader gives up trading opportunities for more clarity on the day structure.
- There is often a swing trade that begins before the end of the second hour after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. This means a trader can often look to buy on a stop entry after forming one of the abovementioned patterns and have a 40% chance of catching a swing that will double the opening range.
- The most important thing on the open is to trade the chart in front of you, not what you think the market will do. Price is truth, and a trader must never deny the chart in front of them.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD has continued to go sideways in a tight trading range over the past few days.
- Traders are deciding if the market will test the moving average before reaching the May 31st low.
- It is possible that the market will form a higher low above the May 31st low. However, if it does, traders will question if the May 31st low was adequately tested.
- Trading ranges often go beyond important magnets. This means that the market will probably fall below the May 31st low.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Here is YouTube link if video popup blocked:
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.