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Emini Correction to Moving Average Likely

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Trading Update: Monday July 28, 2025

E-mini end of day video review

Emini EOD Review Joseph Imbornone

Follow Joseph’s YouTube channel for more Al Brooks price action analysis.

S&P E-mini market analysis

E-mini daily chart

  • The daily chart of the Emini is continuing to form a tight, bull channel with many closes above the moving average.
  • I’ve been saying for a while that the odds are markets are going to have to test the moving average, which means the odds favor a pullback. The rally is getting extremely late in a bull channel.  
  • Channels typically test the moving average; therefore, when you get a breakout, it’s usually better to wait and see what the pullback looks like, especially later in the channel.
  • Even though the market is far from the July 16th high, the odds are that it will likely get tested over the next several bars.
  • Because the channel up is tight, the downside risk is limited. This means that a trading range is more likely than the start of a strong bear reversal.  
  • The Bears realistically need a major trend reversal before they can expect some credible attempt at a major reversal. Without one, the Bears can expect it to go sideways.
  • Even though the market is in a 4-bar bull microchannel on the daily chart, the odds are it’s going to get a pullback lasting at least a couple of legs and probably down to the moving average.
  • It’s possible that the market waits for the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and then uses that as the reason to test down to the moving average.

E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The opening of the U.S. session has gone sideways for the first 16 bars and formed a triangle on the 5-minute chart.
  • Because of the reasons I’ve said above, the odds favor a pullback on the higher time frames. This means there is an increased risk of a sell-off today over the next couple of days.
  • The odds favor a test of today’s bar 3 low and Friday’s bar 78 low. If the bears are lucky, they will get a series of strong bear bars closing on their lows, which would increase the odds of some measured move down.
  • Because of all the trading range price action on the open, the odds are that if we do get a trend day, it will be a trending trading range day.
  • Bar 17 is good for the Bears, but it needs follow-through. The Bears need bar 18 to be another strong bear bar, which would increase the odds of a measured move down based on the opening range.

Friday’s E-mini setups

Emini-5-Min-Sideways-Open-Then-Small-Pullback-Bull-Trend

Brad created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.

Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action

Emini 5 Min Opening Trading Range Then Bear Channel EOD Profit Taking

Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD sold off after the June rally and formed a trend line break around the July 14th low.
  • The Bulls tried to get a reversal up over the past couple of days; however, the Bears managed to get a credible lower-high major turn reversal on July 24.
  • The signal bar was not ideal, especially after a prolonged microchannel. The entry bar formed a week high one buy for the bulls, which led to sellers above, and today, we are getting the bear breakout.
  • Today is enough of a surprise that the odds favor at least a small second leg down.
  • The Bears need today to close on their low and for tomorrow to form another strong follow-through bar.
  • Ideally, if both today and tomorrow are large consecutive bear trend bars closing below the July low, that would increase the odds of some measured move down in the start of a successful major trend reversal for the bears.
  • The Bulls need to, at a minimum, prevent the Bears from getting a strong follow-through bar tomorrow.
  • At the moment, the odds favor at least a small second leg down for the Bears.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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