Trading Update: Tuesday July 11, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini is balanced and forming a triangle on the daily chart. This is a breakout mode pattern.
- The Emini formed another bull close in the middle of the two-week-long trading range.
- It is essential to realize that the market would not be in the middle of a tight trading range if one side had a high probability.
- Traders should assume that the probability of a successful bull breakout compared to a bear breakout is close to 50%
- The bulls are holding above the 20-period exponential moving average. This slightly increasing the probability of higher prices.
- The moving average reflects fair prices, and if the market is holding above what is deemed fair, that means there is a bullish bias.
- The bears need to show more signs of strength. It would be ideal if the bears could get a close below the moving average. Next, traders would want to see consecutive closes below the moving average at a minimum.
- Overall, traders should view the current price action as a breakout mode pattern where the probability is close to 50% for both the bulls and the bears.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 7 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The overnight Globex session sold off during the early morning hours. However, it ended up being a pullback that led to higher prices.
- Traders should be neutral going into the U.S. Session.
- As always, traders should expect a trading range open for the first 6-12 bars to have a lot of trading range price action. Traders should consider not trading the first 6-12 bars unless they are comfortable with limit order scalping and can make quick decisions.
- Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that will typically begin before the end of the second hour. It is typical for the opening swing to begin after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Traders should pay close attention to the open of the day as it will likely be an essential magnet.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a strong follow-through bar yesterday after last Friday’s strong bull close.
- The market exceeded the June 22 high early this morning and reversed down.
- At the moment, today’s bar is a bear bar on its low. Even if the bears can get a bear bar closing in it low, there are probably buyers below scaling in lower. This means the downside over the next few days is probably limited.
- The bulls see the recent three consecutive bull bars as being strong enough for a second leg and a test of the May high.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.