Emini Testing Down to Moving Average

Trading Update: Wednesday July 17, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini gapped down on the daily chart and is currently below the 5,700 round number. The market is trying to test down to the moving average.
• I have been saying that the daily chart is in a tight bull channel that is getting climactic.
• This increases the odds of a pullback to the moving average and the 5,600 over the next several weeks.
• The channel up is tight, which means that a trading range is more likely than a strong reversal below the moving average.
• The bears are hopeful that today is the start of the reversal down that reaches the moving average and the 5,600 round number.
• The bears have done a good job with the gap down on the daily chart. Next, they want the US session to close on its low, which would create a strong bear reversal bar.
• Even if the bears get a strong downside breakout today, the odds favor sideways for the bears, which means any downside breakout will probably be limited.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The Emini gapped down on the open and formed a two-legged pullback on bar 6, closing on its low. This was a credible second entry short for the bears, which increased the odds of a test of the bar 1 low.
• The bears formed a strong downside breakout to bar 5. However, it is late in a bear trend that began last night.
• Because the selloff to bar 5 is late in a trend and the first 6 bars of the day have a lot of buying pressure, that increases the risk that the selloff to bar 8 is possible exhaustion.
• The bulls want a test of the bar 6 high, which is the top of the most recent major lower high.   

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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