Monthly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart: Strong bull trend, but buy climax
The monthly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart has been above its 20 month exponential moving average for 36 months, which is extremely unusual. There is an 80% chance that it will hit the moving average this year. Since the average is about 10% below the high, this means that he Emini will almost certainly have at least a 10% correction this year. Traders learning how to trade the markets should be very careful because a sharp reversal can come at any time.
The FOMC meeting on this coming Wednesday could be a catalyst to a big move up or down. Also, if the Supreme Court rules that parts of Obamacare are unconstitutional this month, there could be a perception that the US has weak leadership, and this could be the start of the pullback. Since the Emini monthly chart is still in a strong bull trend, there is a 50% chance of at least one more push up before the reversal down.
Weekly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart: Learn how to trade the markets in breakout mode
The weekly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart has been in a very tight trading range for 4 months. There is a 50% chance of a breakout up or down, and a 50% chance that either breakout will fail and reverse. The odds are 80% that there will either be a bear breakout or a bull breakout that fails and reverses down. There is only about a 20% chance of a successful strong bull breakout because the monthly chart is so overbought.
Daily S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart: Minor reversals in tight trading range
The daily S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart is in the middle of a 4 month trading range and has a 50% chance of a bull or bear breakout. As with all trading ranges, there are always reasonable buy and sell setups. The bears see a developing head and shoulders top and the bulls see a double bottom bull flag. All reversals within trading ranges should be assumed to be minor, since 80% of breakout attempts fail. However, this tight trading range has gone on for about 100 bars, which is a long time, and it is within a larger trading range. The breakout is likely to come soon. I don’t know if that means 10 bars (days) or 50 bars, but this is becoming unusually long and that increases the chances that the breakout will be soon.
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The 240 minute EURUSD chart is in a triangle at the top of a 6 month trading range. It might have a breakout up or down on this week’s FOMC report. Since the bear trend last year was so strong, a bull breakout will probably fail and reverse down. The weekly chart is on a 20 gap bar sell signal, and the odds favor a test of the bear low before any rally can go very far up.
The weekly USDJPY chart has a possible Final Flag top. However, after 3 strong weeks up, the bears might need a 2nd entry sell signal before the market works back down into the tight trading range.