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EURUSD Inside Doji Pullback

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The market formed a EURUSD inside doji pullback to the 20-week EMA this week. Bulls want the 20-week EMA to act as support, leading to a second leg sideways to up. Bears want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal, followed by a retest of the trading range low.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly - PB to 20-Week EMA, Bears Want LH MTR, EURUSD Inside Doji Pullback
  • This week formed an inside bear doji closing near the middle of its range, with prominent tails.
  • Last week, we said traders would watch for follow-through buying or a stall and pullback to the 20-week EMA, followed by a retest of the range low in the weeks ahead.
  • The market pulled back to the 20-week EMA but did not close below it.
  • Recently, bulls retested the trading range high following the two-bar reversal (March 3 and March 13), higher low major trend reversal (March 30), and the large double bottom bull flag (August 1 and March 13).
  • Bulls see this week as a pullback and want the 20-week EMA to act as support, leading to a second leg sideways to up.
  • They want a strong breakout above the trading range, followed by a measured move based on its height, targeting the 2018 high.
  • Bulls view the 46-week trading range as a large bull flag—a 25% pullback from the January 2025 rally—and want a trend resumption.
  • They need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a successful breakout.
  • Bears see the recent move as a bull leg within a trading range and a retest of the January 27 high.
  • They want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal, followed by a retest of the trading range low.
  • If the market trades higher, they want the April 17 high or the top of the trading range to act as resistance.
  • Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
  • The market retested the trading range high and pulled back to the middle of the range (around the 20-week EMA).
  • The middle of the range is an area of balance and often acts as a magnet.
  • Traders will watch whether bears can create bear bars breaking below the 20-week EMA, or whether the move stalls around it instead. A weak, sideways pullback increases the odds of a second leg sideways to up to retest the trading range high.
  • For now, the market is still within a trading range, with a slight sideways-to-up bias.
  • Price remains within the 46-week range. Until there is a clear breakout with strong follow-through, traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH)—buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily - Bulls Want 2nd Leg, Bears Need FT Selling
  • EURUSD traded sideways to down this week, retesting the 20-day EMA.
  • Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could maintain the tight channel to retest the range high, or if the 20-day EMA would act as support on a pullback.
  • Bears see the recent move as a buy vacuum bull leg and a retest of the January 27 high.
  • They want the February 23 high to act as resistance, forming a large double top bear flag (February 23 and April 17) and a lower high major trend reversal.
  • Bears want a large second leg sideways to down to retest the March 13 low.
  • At a minimum, they wanted a two-legged pullback to the 20-day EMA, which occurred this week.
  • If the market trades higher, they want weak follow-through with overlapping bars, long upper tails, and a lower high relative to April 17.
  • Bears need consecutive strong bear bars closing far below the 20-day EMA to show control.
  • Bulls want a retest of the trading range high, followed by a breakout and trend resumption.
  • They see the whole trading range as a 25% pullback of the rally from the January 2025 low, forming a large double bottom bull flag (August 1 and March 13).
  • Bulls view the current move as a pullback forming a double bottom bull flag (April 13 and April 24) and want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
  • At a minimum, they want a small second leg sideways to up to retest the April 17 high.
  • Bulls need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a breakout.
  • The market tested near the top of the trading range and pulled back to the middle of the range this week.
  • Traders are watching whether bulls can create at least a small second leg sideways to up to retest the prior leg high (April 17), or whether bears will generate strong bear bars breaking far below the 20-day EMA.
  • EURUSD remains in a trading range. Until there is a strong breakout with sustained follow-through, traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH)—buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
  • The middle of the range is an area of balance and often acts as a magnet.
  • For now, the market remains within the trading range, with a slight sideways-to-up bias.

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