EURUSD No Follow-through Selling

Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

There was no follow-through selling on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart. The bulls want another leg up, completing the wedge pattern. The bears failed to create follow-through selling again in June. They are not as strong as they hope to be. If the current pullback remains weak (with overlapping bars, doji(s) and bull bars) as it is now, the odds will favor a retest of the April high in the coming weeks.

EURUSD Forex market

The Monthly EURUSD Forex chart

• The June monthly EURUSD candlestick was a big inside bull bar closing in the upper half of its range.
• Last month, we said that June may trade slightly below May, and traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar or will the market trade slightly lower but close with a long tail below or with a bull body.
• June did not trade below May and traded higher to close above the 20-month exponential moving average.
• The bears want a reversal down from a double top with the February high and a micro double top (Apr 26 and May 3).
• For a deeper pullback to happen, they needed to create consecutive strong bear bars to convince traders that they are back in control.
• Previously, the bears were not able to create follow-through selling (in March). 
• They failed to create follow-through selling again in June.
• They hope that the current move up is simply a retest of the April/May highs and want a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal or a wedge top with the first 2 legs being February 2 and April 26.
• The bulls hope that the recent pullback will form a higher low.
• They want another leg up, completing the wedge pattern. The third leg up is likely underway.
• The last 6 candlesticks have a lot of overlapping range but are sloping slightly up. The market is in a smaller broad bull channel following a bull spike from November.
• The EURUSD is in a sideways trading range with a slight upside tilt. Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within the trading range.
• Since June was an inside bull bear bar closing in the upper half, the market is in breakout mode. If there is a breakout, an upside breakout first is more likely.
• With the bears failing to get follow-through selling, odds slightly favor July to trade at least a little above June’s high, likely testing near the April/May high area.
• Traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar or will the market trade slightly higher but stall and reverses around the April/May high area.

The Weekly EURUSD chart

• This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a bull doji with prominent tails above and below.
• Last week, we said that traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar and if the pullback is weak (with overlapping bars, doji(s) and bull bars), the odds will favor a retest of the April high in the coming weeks.
• This week traded below last week’s low but reversed to close around the middle of the week’s range.
• The bears did not get a follow-through bear bar. They are not as strong as they hoped to be.
• They were expecting at least a small second leg sideways to down following the tight bear channel down to May 31 low. 
• Instead of a weak pullback (bounce), the EURUSD spiked higher.
• They hope that the recent rally was simply a deep pullback and want a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal and a head and shoulders top.
• The bulls want another strong leg up, completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being February 2 and April 26.
• At the very least, they want a retest of the April high after the recent pullback.
• The bulls hope that the last two weeks were simply a pullback and want another leg higher.
• Since this week’s candlestick was a bull doji, it is a neutral signal bar.
• If the current pullback remains weak (with overlapping bars, doji(s) and bull bars) as it is now, the odds will favor a retest of the April high in the coming weeks.
• A lower probability event would be a surprise big bear bar.

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