Brooks Trading Course

Learn to Trade Price Action Consistently

 

More results...

EURUSD Traded below August Low

By

Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The EURUSD Forex traded below August low but reversed into an outside bull bar on the weekly chart. So far, the bears have not been able to create follow-through selling below the July low. The bulls will need to create a consecutive bull bar next week to increase the odds of a larger 2-legged sideways to up lasting many weeks. 

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Traded below August Low on Weekly Chart
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was an outside bull bar with a prominent tail above. 
  • Last week, we said that the EURUSD slightly favor sideways to down. Previously, we said that if the next couple of weeks trades lower, but reverse to close as bull bars, or overlapping weak bear bars with long tails below, we may start to see another reversal attempt from the bulls within a couple of weeks. It may have started this week.
  • This week broke below the August low and then reversed above the high of the prior two weeks, but closed below those highs.
  • The bears want a strong breakout below the 2017 low, and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. This will take them to the year 2000 low.
  • The move down is in a tight bear channel. That means strong bears. 
  • The bears got the second leg sideways to down in August after the recent pullback.
  • However, they did not get follow-through selling below July low in the last 2 weeks.
  • The bulls hope that the recent 4-week tight trading range pullback is the final flag of the move down which started in February 2022. They want a failed breakout below the 7-year trading range. 
  • They want a reversal higher from a wedge bottom (Mar 4, May 13 and July 14) and a double bottom with the July low (July 14 and Sept 6).
  • The bulls also have a micro wedge (July 14, Aug 23 and Sept 6).
  • Since this week was an outside bull bar, it is a buy signal bar for next week. The bulls will need to create a follow-through bull bar to increase the odds of the EURUSD trading higher.
  • If they get that, we may start to see a reversal attempt towards the Aug 10 high or the 20-week exponential moving average.
  • For now, the EURUSD slightly favors sideways to up.
  • Traders will be watching if the bulls can create sustained follow-through buying. If they can, it can lead to a larger 2-legged sideways to up pullback lasting many weeks.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Forex Daily Chart No Follow-through Selling below July Low
  • The EURUSD broke below the August low early in the week but the bears did not get follow-through selling. The EURUSD then reversed higher into Friday.
  • Previously, we said that odds slightly favor sideways to down and if the EURUSD continues to stall around the July low, we may see another reversal attempt by the bulls within a couple of weeks.
  • The reversal attempt higher may have started this week.
  • The bulls want a failed breakout below the 7-year trading range.
  • They hope that the recent 4-week tight trading range pullback is the final flag of the move down which started in February. 
  • The bulls want a reversal higher from a wedge bottom (Mar 4, May 13 and July 14) and a double bottom with the July low (July 14 and August 23).
  • The bulls also have a smaller wedge (July 14, Aug 23 and Sept 6).
  • They need to create strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs breaking far above the bear trend line to increase the odds of a test of the August 10 high.
  • The bears want a continuation down and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. That would take them to the year 2000 low.
  • They got a second leg sideways to down testing July low and want a breakout and a measured move down.
  • However, they have not been able to create follow-through selling below the July low.
  • The bears want another leg lower from a double top bear flag (Aug 31 and Sept 9). 
  • While the EURUSD may still trade lower, the selling has been climactic and relentless since it started in Jan 2021. Odds favor a larger 2-legged sideways to up pullback lasting many weeks before the EURUSD trades much lower.
  • For now, odds slightly favor sideways to up.
  • If the EURUSD reverses lower from a double top bear flag (Aug 31 and Sept 9) breaking below Sept 6 low, odds are it would not go far and would reverse higher within a couple of weeks.

Market analysis reports archive

You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.

>