Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
The Gold GC-mini was no longer divergent with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq markets this week, with all 3 markets putting in strong bear bars. Gold is steadily moving further away from the psychological 5000 mark. This means that the path of least resistance is down, and the probability of making money on the short side is much higher than trying to pick a bottom. Bears have been successfully selling into every minor bounce, creating tight bear channels. Are we in a bear trend or a trading range? Right now, it is a bit of both. We have had a strong bear leg, but we are reaching the bottom of the larger ascending trend structure.
Weekly bears are targeting a measured move down to 3967.5 using a 50% pullback set up that has so far been playing out. This set up was detailed in last week’s blog post.
The daily bears were able to turn the bull push from the end of last week into a top of a bear channel 50% pullback sell opportunity. As a way to train your eyes, print out the gold daily chart from the beginning of 2026 and try to find as many of these 50% pullback set ups as possible. There are many.
Bulls are hoping to buy from what can be considered the bottom of a bear channel. Bulls are also looking left for areas that would provide support and double bottoms. Bears want to maintain a large gap between price and the moving average.
The Weekly Gold chart
- Large bear bar closing on its low.
- Potentially at the low of a bear channel.
- Closed a body beneath the bottom tail of last week’s bar.
- Closed a body beneath the bear bar from the week of January 2nd.
- Bears eyeing to close a body beneath neckline 4164.9 of the parabolic correction.
- Bulls want to keep price in a trading range in order to prevent a bear run.
- Bears want to follow through with next week’s bar.
- Bears want to keep a large gap between price and the moving average.
- Bulls want to create a double bottom with the bar from the week of March 13.
- Bears close 4 bars in a row under the moving average.
The Daily Gold chart
- Bears close a body beneath the previous neckline of May 28th.
- Strong bear bar closing on its low, a strong sell signal.
- Bears want to follow through with Monday’s bar.
- Bulls see this as the bottom of a bear channel.
- Bears want to break the channel, and turn the market into a bear trend.
- Bears were able to close a body beneath necklines dating back to December of 2025.
- Bears want to get beneath the parabolic correction low of 4164.9
- Bears want to put in a 3rd similar leg targeting the 4232 area.
- Bears want to maintain a large gap between price and the moving average.
- Bulls want to send the price back up to the moving average, preventing a small pullback bear trend.
Market analysis reports archive
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