Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
On the daily Gold GC-mini a triangle pattern has formed. Triangles are breakout patterns. This range has exceeded more than 20 bars, effectively neutralizing the advantage bears held from the strong downward leg. On Wednesday, the daily bulls were able to close a strong bar above the moving average. On Thursday, the bears answered with authority by closing a strong bear bar well beneath the body of the previous bar.
Bears want to send the message that the historic parabolic bull correction has not concluded. This message is becoming weaker over time. Weekly bears have poked tails beneath the $4,000 mark multiple times, but they cannot close bodies below it. Without follow-through, a bear breakout is a potential trap.
Weekly bulls want decisive follow through on this week’s green bar. Bulls want a double bottom or a higher low to launch a rally back to the moving average. Weekly bulls did a great job preventing bears from getting follow through from the previous consecutive red bars.
The Weekly Gold chart
- Bulls close a body over the 50% mark of the previous bar body.
- Bulls fail to close a body above the 50% mark of the previous 2 consecutive bear bars.
- Large wick on top showing sellers waiting to defend the $4200 resistance level.
- Bulls able to prevent the bottom tail from breaching the psychological $4000 level.
- Bulls want a wedge double bottom reversal pattern.
- The Bear channel is becoming more sideways.
- Bears are still able to maintain a wide gap between price and the moving average.
- Bulls want to close a body (preferably consecutive bodies) above the moving average.
- 4 of the past 14 bars are bearish.
- 2 of the past 4 bars are bullish.
- Bulls breached the upper trendline of the bear channel, however bears took this as a discount to sell, sending price back down well within the channel structure.
The Daily Gold chart
- 4 of the 5 daily bars this week were bullish.
- 3 of the 4 bull bars were strong, closing near their highs.
- On Wednesday, the bulls were able to close a strong bar above the moving average.
- Bears were able to keep prices under the moving average for the rest of the week after the breach.
- Bulls want to close consecutive bodies above the moving average. Bulls want to close above $4200 resistance level with confidant strong bars.
- Bears want to take advantage of the discounts the perceive at the top of the bear channel.
- Bears want to smash through the $4000 support level.
- Bears want to send the message that the correction has not concluded.
- Price has been going sideways long enough for the moving average to catch up.
- The last time a body closed above the moving average was May 14th.
- A triangle pattern has formed. A breakout pattern. This range has exceeded more than 20 bars, neutralizing the advantage the bears held from the downward leg.
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