Emini 6-day tight trading range in bull trend

Trading Update: Wednesday September 8, 2021

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• Yesterday dipped below the bottom of the 6-day tight trading range, but then closed back in the range.
• Every day in September has traded through the open of the month, which tells traders that it is an important price.
• September is currently the 8^th consecutive bull bar on the monthly chart. That has never happened in the Emini. If the month closes below the open, then the streak will be over.
• September should become the high for the remainder of the year. If not September, then probably October.
• The weekly Small Pullback Bull Trend has lasted an unusually long time and it therefore should end soon. The biggest pullback was 10% and it happened a year ago.
• When a Small Pullback Bear Trend ends, it does so with a pullback that is at least 50% bigger. Therefore, traders should expect a 15 to 20% pullback to start within a month or so.
• The FOMC meeting on September 22 is especially important because the Fed might start to change its language after a couple years of saying the same thing. That meeting is therefore a potential catalyst for a big move up or down.
• A big move up will probably be a blow-off top.
• A big move down could be the start of the 15% correction. That correction can begin at any time, including a few weeks after the FOMC announcement. It might have already begun.
• After 6 days in a tight trading range, traders expect another sideways day. Since this is a Breakout Mode pattern, there can be a big trend day up or down at any time. It will probably begin with a series of strong trend bars in the 1^st hour. Without that, traders will expect a continuation of the 6-day range.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 6 points in the overnight Globex session.
• This is now the 3^rd day down from the all-time high.
• With most days for 2 weeks spending a lot of time sideways, traders will expect that again today. The small days might continue up to the September 22 FOMC announcement.
• However, with September likely to be the high for the remainder of the year, there could be an acceleration down or a blow-off top. That means a big trend in either direction can happen at any time.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• Today so far is the 3^rd consecutive bear day after Friday reversed down from a parabolic wedge rally and a double top (with the July 30 high).
• Today’s low is testing the August 13 high breakout point.
• After a parabolic wedge, traders should expect a couple small legs sideways to down for a week or two.
• Targets below are the 50% pullback, the August 27 low, and the July 21 higher low.
• After 4 days down, the EURUSD should start to go sideways today or tomorrow for at least a couple days before there is a 2^nd leg sideways to down.
• The bulls want the reversal to only be sideways for a few days. They then want the bull trend to resume.
• The bears are hoping that this reversal will fall below the August 20 low, which is the neckline of the July 30/ September 3 double top. They then want the selloff to continue down for a 600-point measured move.
• The bears only have 30% chance of achieving those goals. There should be buyers between 1.17 and 1.18, and there probably are buyers below the March 2000 low at 1.16.
• Most likely, the selloff will form a higher low and lead to a 2^nd leg sideways to up. However, the EURUSD has been in a tight range for 4 months, and that range is within a yearlong range. There is no evidence that this is about to change. There should be sellers above, around the June 25 high and 1.20.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

End of day summary

• After a wedge rally to the EMA, the Emini sold off for a measured move down and a test of the 4,500 Big Round Number and the August 25 high Breakout Point.
• The first reversal up from the micro double bottom was minor.
• The second reversal up was a higher low major trend reversal.
• There was a Spike and Channel bull trend that tested the open of the day.
• Today closed just below the open.
• Today is a High 1 buy signal bar on the daily chart.
• However, the setup is weak since today is a doji bar and the daily chart is in a tight trading range.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

---

Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

---

Charts use Pacific Time

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

---