Trading Update: Wednesday June 30, 2021
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- I have been saying since last Monday that the Emini was likely to be strongly up through the 4th of July. It could reach the 4,400 measured move target before there is a correction.
- The past 5 days were small, but each made a new high within bull micro channel. No credible top yet.
- Yesterday was the 8th day without a pullback, which is extreme. That increases the chance that today will trade below yesterday’s low, creating a pullback.
- Traders will buy the first 1- to 3-day pullback.
- Strong bull trend and strong time of year through end of week so traders expect at least a little higher.
- 4th of July week is 2nd lightest trading of the year (Christmas is the slowest).
- Still can get a big move at any time.
- Friday’s unemployment report could be catalyst for big move up or down.
- Today is the final day of June. On the monthly chart, June will probably be the 5th consecutive bull bar. The more it closes near its high, the more likely July will trade at least a little higher.
- Bars often change their appearance just before they close. Since June closes today on the monthly chart and today is the end of the month, if there is a change, it would mean that the month does not close on its high. This slightly increases the chance of a selloff today.
- In addition to today being the last day of June, it is also the final day of the quarter. This increases the chance of a big move up or down in the final hour.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 6 points in the overnight Globex session.
- After 8 days without a pullback, in bull micro channel, increased chance today will trade below yesterday’s low.
- 5 small days increase chance of another small day.
- Final day of month and quarter so increased chance of trend day and increased chance of big move up or down in final hour.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Turning down from June 25 lower high.
- Selloff is weak (small, overlapping bars with prominent tails) and looks more like bear leg in trading range than resumption of bear trend. This increases chance of more sideways days.
- Might be waiting for Friday’s unemployment report.
- Bulls want double bottom with June 18 low and reversal up to June 16 sell climax high.
- Bears want a resumption of bear trend and a test of the March 31 low.
- Unless the bulls get one or two big bull bars closing near their highs, traders will continue to expect another leg down to the March 31 low.
Weekly chart might have consecutive inside bars
- This week so far is an inside bar on the weekly chart, as was last week.
- Consecutive inside bars is an ii pattern (inside-inside). It is a Breakout Mode pattern, and it can lead to a big move in either direction.
- If this week remains an ii, a breakout below will probably reverse up from around the March 31 low since an ii late in a bear trend is usually a final bear flag.
- If there is a breakout above, the rally could reverse the big selloff of 2 weeks ago.
- No matter what happens over the next week, the EURUSD will probably still be in its yearlong trading range.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
- Double bottom test of yesterday’s low on the open, but rally reversed down from a wedge top.
- After 3-hour weak bear channel, bulls rallied again from expanding triangle and a higher low.
- Broke above Globex high and above yesterday’s high for another all-time high.
- June closed near its high so July might gap up tomorrow on monthly chart.
- Stayed above yesterday’s low so now 9 days in bull micro channel. Should get pullback soon, but bulls will buy the 1st 1- to 3-day pullback.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.