Emini January effect Trump tax cut rally continuing
The Emini opened with a big gap up and consecutive big bull bars. In addition, it broke above yesterday’s bull channel. The measured move up from yesterday’s wedge top and from yesterday’s opening gap up are both around 2724. This is an extreme buy climax and therefore there is at least a 50% chance of a 2 hour sideways to down move beginning by the end of the 1st hour or two. While this is a Buy The Close open, it has greater risk. Most traders should therefore wait to buy a pullback because of the risk of an early high of the day.
The bears want a climactic reversal and early high of the day. They need a strong reversal down or 3 consecutive bear bars before traders believe that a TBTL Ten Bar, Two Legged correction has begun.
Pre-Open market analysis
Yesterday was a trend from the open bull trend day. Because it rallied in a big wedge bull channel, the odds favor a transition into a trading range today. There is still no top on the daily chart, despite the buy climax. Therefore, the odds continue to favor higher prices over the next week or so.
There is often buying in early January after December tax selling. This is the January Effect. However, the tight trading range of the past 3 weeks might be a Final Flag. If so, this 2 day breakout will fail within the next week and get pulled back into the range.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is up 8 points in the Globex session. If it opens here, it will gap up. However, yesterday’s bull channel had 3 legs up. The gap up would be the 4th leg up in the channel. Channels often have 4 – 5 legs before converting into a trading range. There is a 75% chance of a bear break below the bull channel today. In addition, the breakout will probably result in at least 2 – 3 hours of sideways to down trading. The targets for any selloff are the higher lows in the channel that began with the 8 am pullback yesterday.
Even if there is a 10 point reversal in the next day or two, the bears will likely need at least a micro double top. Therefore, the bulls will buy the 1st pullback, limiting the downside risk over the next couple of days.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
Yesterday was a 1 day pullback after a strong 4 day rally. It is therefore a High 1 bull flag. Because it was a bear bar, it is a low probability buy setup. This means that the breakout above will probably not get far. Since the rally is testing the resistance of the September high and the bottom of a 15 year trading range, there is an added reason for a 2 – 3 week pullback.
The daily chart is in a 6 month trading range. That means it usually goes above resistance before beginning a bear leg. In addition, it usually falls below support before rallying again. Traders will begin to sell above yesterday’s high. However, the 3 month rally is strong. In addition, there will probably be buyers between 1.1850 and 1.1900. Since the daily chart is in a bull trend, it is a higher probability trade to buy the pullback than to sell the rally.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied 70 pips overnight to above yesterday’s high. This triggered a buy signal on the daily chart after a 1 day pullback. Since the chart is at resistance and yesterday was a bad buy signal bar, the odds are that traders will begin to sell. Bears will look for day trading scalps and possibly a 100 – 150 pip swing down to below support. Bulls will continue to buy for swings and scalps, but they will be quick to take profits. This is because they know that a pullback will likely begin within a few days.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
The Emini has a parabolic wedge top on the 60 minute chart. Also, it is at a measured move up from the 9 day trading range. The 60 minute chart had a good sell signal bar today, but a bad follow-through bar. The odds are that the Emini will pull back for a day or two.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.