Trading Update: Thursday November 9, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini is beginning to go sideways after the recent strong upside reversal from the October 27th high. The odds are that the bulls will begin to take partial profits, increasing the odds of going sideways over the next few days.
- The bears are hopeful that the market will begin to go sideways and that the bulls will take partial profits near the October 17th high.
- There are trapped bears who sold the rally up from the October 27th low, and they will likely use any pullback they can to buy back shorts with a smaller loss. This increases the odds of buyers below and a second leg up for the bulls.
- Because the market is in an overall trading range on the daily chart, it may have to pull back near a 50% retracement of the October 27th rally before the bulls come in.
- Overall, today will probably disappoint the bulls and the market will continue to go sideways within the four-day tight trading range.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market has gone sideways in a tight trading range on the 60-minute chart for most of the overnight session.
- The bears are trying to form a large wedge top on the 5-minute Globex chart, going into the open of the U.S. Session.
- The bears want today to be a bear bar on the daily chart. This means they will try their best to close far below the day’s open.
- Traders should pay close attention to the open since it will probably be a magnet today.
- As always, traders should consider not trading the first 6-12 bars unless they can make quick decisions. If they do trade the open, they should consider waiting for strong consecutive closes.
Emini intraday market update
- Bars 1-2 are strong bear trend bars; this increases the odds of a second leg down and the market becoming either a bear trend or a trading range day. The odds are against a bull-trend day.
- The Bulls want to create bad follow-through after bar 2 and prevent the Bears from getting a strong second leg down.
- Bar 3 is not strong enough to cause a reversal; this increases the odds of a second leg down.
- The Bears ended up getting their second leg down after bars 1-2. The bulls were able to form strong bull bars during 5 and 6, which increases the odds of a trading range forming soon.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD recently formed a strong upside breakout last week (November 2nd).
- The Bulls see the breakout as being strong enough for a second leg up, and the bears are hopeful that they will be able to create a second leg trap.
- At the moment, the odds favor the Bulls getting a second leg up and breaking above the November 6th high.
- Yesterday, we formed a High 1 buy setup. There are often sellers above High 1 who buy signal bars for at least a scalp. However, it is often temporary selling, leading to bulls buying and higher prices.
- Because the breakout on November 2nd was strong, the odds favor a second leg up, which means that the bulls who buy above the high 1 and scale in low will probably make money.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.