Emini bull breakout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting
Pre-Open market analysis
Yesterday was another bull trend day. The odds are that the rally will continue up to the March high, just above 2800. However, if so, there will probably be 1 – 2 day pullbacks along the way. Since most days in a bull trend on the daily chart have bull bodies, traders will look for an early low every day.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
Today is rollover day, but most day traders will continue to trade the June contract. The Emini is up 6 points in the Globex session. Since yesterday was a buy climax, there is only a 25% chance of a strong bull trend today. Yet, there is a 50% chance of some follow-through buying within the 1st 2 hours. Finally, there is a 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading beginning by the end of the 2nd hour. After 4 consecutive bull trend days, a strong bear trend day is unlikely.
EURUSD Forex strong bear rally to resistance after extreme sell climax
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD daily Forex chart had extreme consecutive sell climaxes over the past 2 months. However, the bulls got a strong reversal up last week from below major support. Since the rally has been surprisingly strong, last week’s low will probably be around the bottom for the next 2 months.
As strong as the rally has been, the 1st reversal up after a tight bear channel has an 80% chance of being minor. While a bear flag and a resumption of the bear trend within a couple of weeks is unlikely, a trading range is very likely. This rally is probing for the top of the range.
It is currently at major resistance, but the May 14 sell climax high around 1.20 is even stronger resistance. The momentum up might be strong enough to reach that level before the developing range has its 1st leg down.
Because the rally is now at the 1.18 Big Round Number, the 20 day EMA, and the May 22 sell climax high, it is likely to stall. This is especially true because the daily chart went sideways here a few weeks ago and next week’s FOMC meeting creates uncertainty.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD 5 minute chart rallied another 50 pips overnight. Since the daily chart is at resistance, the odds favor a trading range today. The chart has been in a 25 pip range for the past 6 hours, and a strong rally from here is unlikely today. Day traders will mostly scalp.
The Bears willing to hold for several days will begin to sell above prior 5 minute highs and hold for a 30 – 50 pip pullback. In addition, the bulls will look to buy below 1.17 for a 50 – 100 pip test back up.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
The Emini sold off in a Spike and Channel bear trend after yesterday’s buy climax. It reversed up late the day. The day was a bear doji on the daily chart, and therefore it is a weak sell setup after 4 bull days. Hence, any reversal down will probably be minor. The Emini might enter a tight trading range ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but the odds still favor a test of the March high and 2800 over the next couple of weeks.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.