My thoughts before the open
I was traveling today.
Summary of today’s price action and what to expect tomorrow: Bear trend day, but oversold
The market had a second strong bear trend day and tested the low of the FOMC day last week. Bulls want a double bottom and the bears want a measured move down. Because of the consecutive sell climaxes, tomorrow will probably rally for at least a couple of hours, but there might be some follow-through selling for the first hour or two. Today missed last week’s low by 1 tick and therefore is almost an outside down week. There might be a bounce tomorrow, and then Friday will decide whether the week will close below last week’s low, which could lead to a measured move down.
The daily chart had a sell signal entry bar yesterday. The weekly and monthly charts will decide whether the bears will also start to win on the higher time frames.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.