Emini and Forex Trading Update:
Tuesday March 30, 2021
Pre-Open market analysis of daily chart
- Bulls failed to get gap up on weekly chart yesterday, but yesterday was a good bull day on daily chart. Increased chance of new all-time high, and test 4,000 today or this week.
- End of the quarter window dressing rally is continuing.
- Emini broke above last week’s high, which triggered a weekly High 1 buy signal (bull flag) on the weekly chart.
- Bulls want March to close near its high tomorrow. They then want April to gap up on Thursday to above the March high, which would create a gap up on the monthly chart.
- Gap up is sign of strength. But most monthly gaps are small, and close within a few bars (months). Most close before the end of the month.
- Bears see market stalling at February high, and want reversal down from higher high major trend reversal. They hope 3-day rally will reverse down from double top with March 17 high, forming a small double top within the bigger double top with the March 17 high.
- Bears need consecutive big bear days before traders will consider the possibility of more than a few days down.
- 3 strong bull bars, so more likely to break above March 17 all-time high, than to reverse down.
Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart
- The Emini is down 14 points in the Globex session. It will probably open below yesterday’s 3-hour trading range.
- Bears want a measured move down to yesterday’s low.
- After 3 consecutive bear days, there is an increased chance of at least a small bear day today.
- Bulls want rally to continue through the end of the month tomorrow. They will try to get an early reversal up.
- No strong reason to expect big move up or down. Most days for several weeks have had at least one swing up, and one swing down. Traders will look for that again today.
- If there is a series of strong trend bars up or down in the 1st hour, then increased chance of trend day.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Strong bear channel since January high, which was a wedge top on weekly chart.
- I have been saying this since that was the start of the 3rd leg up in the yearlong wedge top.
- Two small bars could be Final Bear Flag so could bounce for a couple weeks at any time before reaching 1.16.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart
- Overnight breakout below 2 small bars on daily chart, so increased chance of Final Flag reversal up this week. It could come today.
- Overnight selloff has been in bear channel for 6 hours. Day traders have been selling rallies, but taking quick profits.
- No 20-pip bounce yet, so difficult for bulls to make money buying reversals, but they have been trying.
- Unlikely to accelerate down today so day trading bears will continue to sell rallies for scalps.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
End of day summary
- The Emini had a weak selloff on the open. It reversed up from a sell climax at the February high, the 60 minute EMA, and just above yesterday’s low.
- The rally stalled at the EMA, and the Emini reversed down in a weak selloff. It again reversed up from at higher low major trend reversal at the 60 minute EMA.
- It was in a triangle for 5 hours, and had a brief bull breakout in the final hour.
- The breakout failed and it was a bull trap. The Emini reversed down to test the open and low of the day, and close just above the open. Today was a trading range day.
- Since today was a pullback on the daily chart, it is a High 1 buy signal bar. However, it had a small bull body and it is therefore a weak buy setup.
- It is an inside day and therefore a sell signal bar for a double top with the March 17 high, but 4 consecutive bull bars is a low probability sell setup.
- Tomorrow is the final day of March and of the 1st quarter. The bulls want tomorrow to break to a new high and above the 4,000 Big Round Number. If the month closes near its high, there would be an increased chance of a gap up on the monthly chart when April begins on Thursday.
- The bears want a reversal down from a double top with the high from 2 weeks ago. But after 4 bull bars in the past 4 days and with 3 of them being strong, the bears have only a small chance of more than a brief pullback on the daily chart.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Standard Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.