The Emini opened with ABC pullback and trend reversal up from below yesterday’s low (high 2 bull flag). However, the bars were not big and there were prominent tails. Although this might lead to an opening reversal down at the moving average, the rally is strong enough so that the first reversal down will probably be bought. Today will probably either be a weak bull trend or a trading range. Until the bears create a strong reversal, bulls will continue to look for reasons to buy. Because of the possible trading range, pullbacks can be deep.
The reversal up from below yesterday’s low created a double bottom with yesterday’s low. However, the reversal up was not strong initially, which increases the chances of mostly sideways trading for the first hour or so.
Tomorrow is Friday and weekly support and resistance is becoming more important. The most important price is 2049, which is the top of the weekly bull trend channel, and the Emini failed there twice in the past 2 days.
Here are my thoughts before the open. The Emini is at the top of the weeky channel. Although it might break above the channel for 1 – 5 bars (weeks), there is a 75% chance it will fail and then reverse to the bottom of the channel. It can get there by going sideways to down. The minimum objective is a pullback to the middle of the channel and then go sideways to the weekly trendline below.
The Emini might have already topped out. However, it is more likely that it will go sideways to up for several weeks before the correction begins. It might be forming a triangle on the 5 minute chart. This could be the final flag before the weekly reversal begins.
Day trading outlook for tomorrow’s Emini price action
The bulls see the chart as having a wedge bull flag after a strong breakout. The bears see it as being in the early stages of a bear channel after a small double top lower high major trend reversal that formed within the tight trading range. It is in breakout mode. The bulls want trend resumption up to the all-time high. The bears want a trend reversal down to the 60 minute moving average. The breakout might come today, or it might wait for tomorrow.
Tomorrow is a Friday so nearby weekly support and resistance will be magnets, especially at the end of the day. The most important price all week has been 2049, which is the top of the weekly bull trend channel. The all-time high is also a magnet, as is last week’s high of 2043.25, and this week’s open of 2033.25. Today’s low created a 60 minute double bottom, but until there is a breakout up or down, the 60 minute chart is in a 3 day tight trading range.
Premarket price action analysis
See yesterday’s intraday market update report for today’s premarket analysis. Once there, scroll down to the heading, Day trading outlook for tomorrow’s Emini price action.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.