I posted this on BrooksPriceAction.com on September 18, 2012.
AAPL Top
AAPL obviously is in a huge bull trend. However, it is at the top of a monthly channel and is trying to break above a steep bull trend channel line. That works about a third of the time. 67% chance of a Failed Breakout within a few bars (months) and reversal down to the bottom of the channel. TBTL on the monthly chart is about a year, so about a 67% chance of SD for the next year. I don’t know if this is the top yet, but odds favor a top soon.
Since it is the most important stock and a leader, this could lead to a correction of the entire market. The exceptional rally over the past couple of weeks can lead to a top. No sign of a top yet, but might be topping out soon, at least for a month or two, despite the Fed easing.