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Emini Breakout Mode on Daily Chart

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Trading Update: Thursday February 13, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini is forming a tight trading range, which is a breakout mode on the daily chart. Every few bars are oscillating above and below the moving average. This means the probability is close to 50% for both the bulls and bears.
  • The bears are hopeful that the daily chart is forming a major trend reversal, leading to a strong downside breakout and a test of the January low.
  • The bulls hope the trading range will lead to trend resumption and a successful break above the December high.
  • If one side had a significant advantage the market would not be in a trading range.
  • Traders that want higher probability should wait for the breakout and see if the breakout is more likely to succeed or fail.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Globex market sold off overnight and formed a two-legged rally during the early morning hours.
  • The bulls formed a strong breakout bar (15-minute chart) during the 8:30 AM EST report bar. Next, the bulls are hopeful that this breakout bar will successfully break above yesterday’s high and lead to a bull trend during the U.S. Session.
  • The bears are hopeful that the 8:30 AM EST report bar is a 2nd leg bull trap that will lead to a reversal down and a test of the report bar low. If this is going to happen they need to get a bear bar closing on its low.
  • Traders should expect a trading range open during the U.S. Session. There is a 20% chance of a trend from the open and an 80% chance of a trading range open.
  • Because the odds favor a trading range, more traders should wait 6-12 bars before placing a trade.
  • Most traders should try to catch the opening swing, which often begins before the end of the second hour and after forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. A trader can usually wait for one of the above patterns to form before placing a trade.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bull Trend From Open and Then a Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trap Then Bull Trend From Open

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is forming a tight trading range, oscillating above and below the moving average. This makes the probability close to 50% for both the bulls and bears.
  • Because the daily chart has been in a bear channel since October last year, the odds favor the test of major lower highs. This means the EURUSD is probably above the December 6th major lower high.
  • Because the daily chart is in a tight trading range, the probability is close to 50% for both the bulls and bears. This means traders who want higher probability should wait for a breakout up or down and decide if the breakout is more likely to succeed or fail.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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