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Emini Outside Bar Likely to Get Bad Follow-Through

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Trading Update: Friday May 16, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini yesterday formed an outside up bar following Wednesday’s inside bar. This is an expanding triangle formation, which is volatility expansion and increases the odds of today creating a bear bar.
  • The bulls hope that the momentum is strong enough to reach the 6,000 big round number.
  • The problem the bulls face is that the current rally is a late leg in the bull channel on the daily chart, far away from the moving average. This increases the odds that the market may pull back over the next several bars.
  • The bears need to develop more selling pressure if they get a reversal down on the test of the moving average before the market reaches 6,000.
  • If the bears get a reversal down, the downside is probably limited due to the market being so close to 6,000.
  • Overall, today will probably disappoint the bulls and not lead to a strong bull trend bar closing on a tie, creating follow-through after yesterday’s outside bar.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini formed a tight trading range for the first 21 bars of the day.
  • The bears formed a wedge top with the bar 12 high and got a sell-off down to the bar 15 low.
  • Bar 15 was a climactic bar (a big bar) and closed on its low, which increased the risk of a pullback on 16 and 17.
  • The Bulls are hopeful that 16 and 17 are enough to undo the sell-off down to the 15 low. While the Bulls have done a good job, they must do more than they have done so far. This means sales will probably be above the 12 high if the market goes above it.
  • The bears are likely disappointed by the bar 17 rally and will likely be interested in taking profits near the bar 15 close, unless the bears can create a strong start to the 2nd leg down.
  • The risk the bulls face with bar 17 is that it forms a lower high and a 2nd leg down.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Higher Low DB Then Small PB Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trap and Then Small Pullback Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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