Trading Update: Wednesday June 18, 2025
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a bear bar closing on its low yesterday. However, it is currently within a tight trading range, near the daily moving average, and is creating a tight bull channel.
- These reasons above increase the odds of today forming a bull bar for the bears, which is what is happening so far.
- The bulls want to form a bull inside bar closing on its high. Next, they want a rally above today’s high and a test of the June high.
- However, because the daily chart is in a tight trading range, that lowers the probability of stop orders being successful.
- The market has been away from the daily moving average for a lot of bars. This increases the odds of a pullback and test of the moving average sometime soon. This means that if the bulls get a reversal bar today, there is an increased risk of it failing and the market falling to the moving average.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Open of the U.S. Session formed an opening reversal with bar 2 and a bull trend from the open bull trend.
- Because the higher time frames are in a trading range, the odds are that the trend from the open is going to evolve into a trading range, which is what happens 60% of the time.
- The bears formed a tight bear channel down to the 27 close. This is a strong enough selloff that the market has probably evolved into a trading range.
- The bulls need to get a reversal up after the 27 close. If the market is going to break far above the 14 high, the bulls need to form a series of strong bull bars closing on their highs.
- If the test of the bar 14 high is weak, it will increase the odds that bulls will sell out on the way up to the bar 14 high.
- The bears need a credible major trend reversal topping pattern. This means that the market will likely need to test the bar at 14 high. The bears need to prevent any retest of the bar 14 high from becoming strong. Ideally, the bears want any rally up to bar 14 to form a wedge top with momentum to the upside.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Richard created the SP500 Emini chart – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Richard created the SP500 Emini chart – Al travelling.
Emini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
