Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
The Gold GC-mini monthly bar printed an outside bar which was preceded by an inside bar, creating an inside-outside bar sequence. Traders will keep a close eye on how April’s monthly bar will print because inside-outside-inside bar sequences often lead to breakouts. Please refer to Brook’s encyclopedia Part 9 sections 20-23 for detailed slides on this ioi sequence.
March printed a record breaking point range on less volume than January’s comparable yet smaller bar. Bulls are working hard to reclaim the psychological number of $5000. The GC-mini market appears to be continuing its transition from parabolic bull trend to sideways trading range.
At the pullback to the 50% mark of the weekly bear leg, bears were waiting to jump back in hoping to get a 2nd leg. With these 50% pullback setups, the first short attempt can often fail. The 2nd attempt can be even better in terms of risk, reward & probability. Bulls trying to fix their positions will buy again at the low in order to break even at a 50% retrace. 50% pullbacks are common. When bodies close beneath or above this key level it can determine the attitude of the market and likelihood of continuation in one direction or the other.
As long as we are printing bars that stay above the 20-period EMA, bulls are in control. The monthly chart is still well above the moving average, while the weekly chart has closed 2 recent bars beneath its moving average, sending mixed signals.
Higher time frames hold more authority than lower time frames because they reflect the consensus of more market participants, filtering out short-term noise and volatility. Higher time frames show the dominant trend, key support/resistance levels, and institutional activity, reducing false signals. Higher time frames can overwhelm lower time frames.
The Monthly Gold chart
- Inside-outside Bar sequence. This sequence occurred only twice in over 7 years.
- Closed beneath the Bars 50% mark. Bearish despite the large bottom tail.
- March’s body unable to close beneath the bottom tail of February’s bar.
- The large tail beneath reveals bulls treating the correction as a pullback opportunity.
- Record breaking point range on less volume than January’s comparable yet smaller bar.
- Bears want to close bodies beneath the upper tails of December and October’s upper tails.
- Bulls want to reclaim the psychological number of 5000.
- Bears want to drive price down to the moving average.
- Bears want consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
- Bulls want to sustain a large gap between price and the moving average.
- Expanding triangle pattern.
The Weekly Gold chart
- Bulls printed consecutive bull bars
- Bulls were able to close the bar at the moving average.
- Bulls have solid follow through after last week‘s bar.
- Bulls closed above the 50% mark of this week’s bar despite a significant tale on top.
- Bears want to see this move upwards as a pull back in a larger bear trend.
- Bears want to defend their last leg and create a lower high.
- Bears want to get another leg down.
- Bulls want to drive price to new all-time highs, getting a full break even, and create an expanding triangle.
- Bulls want to close two consecutive bars near their highs above the moving average.
- At the 50% mark of the downward leg, bears were waiting to jump back in for the pullback set up.
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