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Emini Bears Want Strong Close on Monthly chart

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Trading Update: Friday February 28, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Today is the final trading day of the month. The bears have a bear bar closing on its low, and they are hopeful that today will close near yesterday’s low. This would cause the monthly chart to close on or near its low, which would be a sign of strength by the bears.
  • Yesterday formed a strong bear breakout bar closing on its low, following Wednesday’s Low 1 Sell signal bar.
  • Although the monthly chart may close on its low, it is still not an ideal signal bar for the bears to sell due to the past couple of months being in a tight trading range.
  • It would be a second entry on the monthly chart. Since the market is far from the moving average, it is reasonable for the bulls to exit below and look to buy close to it.
  • Wednesday’s Low 1 was likely to pull back and lead to trend resumption.
  • There were likely some bulls who bought the Low 1 and failed to exit before it reversal down yesterday. This means that trapped limit order bulls are deciding what to do, which increases the odds of the bears getting a 2nd leg down after yesterday’s reversal.
  • The bulls are hopeful that the market will test back to Wednesday’s Low 1 breakout point and allow the trapped bulls to exit without a loss.
  • Overall, yesterday’s bear breakout is strong enough for a 2nd leg down. Because the daily chart is in a trading range, there is an increased risk of a pullback lasting a few days. 

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini formed a bear bar with bar 1 closing on its low. While this was a good bar for the bears, the context was bad. Bar 1 was a sell climax late in a bear selloff. This increased the risk of a reversal up to the moving average.
  • The bulls hope that bar 1 will be the day’s low. While this is possible, the bears have been in a strong bear trend. A trading range is more likely than a strong bull reversal. It is reasonable for the market to test back down to the bar 1 close later today.
  • As of bar 7, the bulls have been unable to get a strong bull close above the moving average, which is likely to act as resistance. The bulls need to get a strong close above the moving average or a series of closes above the moving average. This would increase the odds of higher prices.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Sell Climax and Then Trend Resumption Down

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trap TRading Range Midday HL DB

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed a bear breakout bar, closing on its low yesterday. This is a strong enough bear reversal bar that the odds favor a 2nd leg down.
  • The bulls will try to prevent the bear from getting follow-through. Even if the bulls can form a bull reversal bar, sellers will likely be above it.
  • Traders will pay close attention to see what kind of follow-through they can get after yesterday’s selloff.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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