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Emini Outside Up Bad Context for Bulls

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Trading Update: Wednesday November 20, 2024

Emini end of day video review

Emini EOD Review Joseph Imbornone

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S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed an outside up-reversal bar yesterday after falling below last Friday’s low. The bulls did a good job getting an outside up bar, however the context is bad.
  • The bulls are hopeful that yesterday is a strong enough reversal bar that the odds favor a second leg up.
  • The bears see yesterday as a pullback from the selloff to the November 15th low.
  • The daily charts will probably go sideways for the next couple of days.
  • The bears want to reach the November 4th major higher low. The Bulls want to get up to the November high.
  • The daily chart has been in a bull channel, which is a trend. However, bears are making money selling above breakout points (October 17th), which increases the odds that the channel will convert into a trading range.
  • The bulls want follow-through buying today after yesterday’s strong bull close. They will likely be disappointed; today, there will not be a strong bull bar.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini sold off, forming a strong bear breakout on bar 2. This is strong enough bear surprise that the odds favor a second leg down.
  • Bar 2 is strong enough that today will probably be either a bear trend or a trading range day.
  • The midpoint of yesterday is 5,911.75 which is important. This is because there will be bull buying at this price level with a stop at yesterday’s low taking a chance that the market will rally above yesterday’s high, giving the bulls a 1:1 Risk/reward on their trade.
  • The momentum down is strong on bar 2, which will limit some of the bulls’ buying without seeing the strength of the second leg down.
  • The Bulls are hopeful that bar 2 is a 2nd leg trap with yesterday’s bar 63. However, the strength of bar 2 makes this unlikely.
  • As of bar 3 the market is Always In Short and likely to get a 2nd leg down. The bulls will need to develop more buying pressure if they are going to get a reversal of bar 2.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trap and Then Small Pullback Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Sell Climax Then Reversal Up

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Test of November 14th Low Likely
  • The EURUSD formed a bad follow-through bar yesterday after Monday’s bull reversal bar closing on its high.
  • The selloff down to the November low formed a 7-bar bear microchannel, which increases the odds of the first reversal up being minor.
  • The bulls tried to get a reversal up on Monday but failed to get follow-through buying yesterday. Because of that, both Bulls and Bears sold expecting an attempt at a 2nd leg down to below the November 14th low.
  • Yesterday formed a micro double top with Monday’s rally, which increased the odds of a reversal down.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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