Trading Update: Tuesday September 16, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The Emini has been in a tight bull channel for the past 10 trading days, which is inside of a larger type old channel that has lasted for several months.
- Bulls will see the recent rally as an opportunity to maximize profits in the bull channel. This will increase the risk of profit-taking and the market going sideways or down for at least a couple of weeks.
- With the market getting climactic on the daily chart and getting near 6700. The odds favor a pullback. This is due to the risk of getting big for the bulls.
- If the risk is getting big for the bulls, they must find a way to manage their risk accordingly. One option is to reduce their position size. The other option is to tighten their stop.
- The market is getting far from the September 2nd major higher low in the moving average. This is a sign that the Bulls have strong momentum on their side. However, because the market is getting late in a bull trend, it’s possible that this rally from the September 2nd low is exhaustion on a higher time frame. This increases the risk of the September 2nd low being tested over the next several weeks.
- Because the rally is starting to find signs of weakness, there’s increased risk that today is going to fall below yesterday’s low. Bulls will likely use yesterday as an opportunity to maximize profit on their longs before the market pulls back for a couple of legs.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini has sold for the first 7 bars of the day in a bear microchannel. This increases the odds of a test of yesterday’s low and an early high of the day.
- Because of what I said about the higher time frames, the odds are against today closing above the open.
- The Bulls are trying to get a reversal up with bar 9 and a parabolic wedge. However, most parabolic wedges are minor reversals that lead to resumption. This means that the odds are the market will probably fall below the bar 9 low and reach yesterday’s low after any minor reversal up.
- Even if the reversal up above 9 pulls back for several legs, there will likely be sellers somewhere above. This is because the day is likely to be a trading range day and not the start of a bull trend day.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
