Trading Update: Tuesday August 12, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The Emini has been in a tight bull channel for several months. Therefore, the selloff down to the August low was likely to lead to a trading range and not the start of a bear trend. The test of the July high is strong, which lowers the probability of the bears getting a successful major reversal.
- The bulls who bought the July high and were willing to buy more near the moving average, were likely to make money.
- The current rally up to the August low is strong and lowers the probability that the market is going to form a double top.
- This means that the daily chart is likely going to have to go sideways for several bars before the bears can get a credible chance at a major trend reversal.
- Any selloff from the current high will likely be minor, which means that the bears will probably have to form a credible lower high major trend reversal. They would create a head and shoulders top for the bears.
- Overall, the daily chart is probably going to go sideways for the next several bars. This means that the best the bears can expect is a trading range for the next couple of weeks.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped up on the open and formed consecutive bull bars on bars 1-2. This increased the odds of a bull trend or a trading range day.
- The bears got a strong reversal down with bar 3; however, the odds favored buyers below the bar 1 low, even if bar 3 formed a 2nd leg down first.
- As of bar 24, the day session has formed a spike and channel bull trend; currently, the rally up to bar 24 is in a small pullback bull trend. This means that the best the bears can expect is a trading range for the next several bars.
- The bears are hopeful that the rally up to the bar 26 high will be a consecutive buy climax; however, the bears believe that the bars the bears can realistically expect is a trading range and not the start of a bear trend.
- The bears need first to make the market go sideways. Next, they need to get strong closes below the moving average as a further sign of strength.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini chart.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
