Non profitable trader in training for swings

July 2024 Monday 29 ( 5min MES futures )

Yesterday we had an Inside TR day and today we started with a TR at the middle of yesterday’s range so the odds of having another TRD was high.

1.- TRD but reaching HoY were a lot of bulls were trapped yesterday

2.- TRD but going low to the last Swing low were bears got trapped

Trades:

1.- Remember white arrow with setup but without targets are setups that I saw but I did not take

Reasons to take it:

Wedge Top

Strong SB

HL DT with yesterday’s PA

Reasons to forget about it:

Strong bull BO with FT above TR

1st target for bears ( trapped bears above thar doji bear bar, bad bull signal that lead to bull BO ) was way to close, so traders could be waiting with orders to exit BE and more bulls buy at that zone

50% PB of bull leg

We were way to close to HoY but we got a PB, even with that PB we could have a second leg up and reach that HoY

2.-I think this is a really good sell after 3 CC bear bars CoL with good context for BO down. As we were on a TR I wasnt looking for swings and I wanted to have more modest TG so instead of going for the last Swing Low of Yesterday, my target was the first MM ( bear BO body MM ), In order to have a good R:R and after those 3 CC bear bars I decided to use a tight stop above the SB which was an Outside bar, so my target was at 1iR

3.- After those 2 bull bars and the exhaustion bear BO, I thought that bull bar SB was a good reason to take the chance, atleast we were in a TRD and theres a lot of bulls who want to exit BE on theirs first entries, so this setup looked good for me. As I said we were on TR and this setup is a H2 FBO of that TR, It is true that we could expect 2 legs up before bears are willing to sell again or reach the top of the TR, but after all this PA I wasnt expecting any swing so I decided to use the TR BOP as target, a lot of trapped bulls could be there and in case the the day evolved to a bear day I was pretty confident about bulls reaching atleast that BOP, so this trades was another 1iR trade

Maybe I should hold this last trade betting on TRD and reach the top, but being honest I thought that the day could be evolving to a bear channel and if it was the case a 1iR trade was enough

This last trade took place at the end of my trading session so as soon as I closed the trade I left the charts.

Thoughts —> I am happy with todays performance, even if I wasnt able to take any swings ( 2iR ) I think I did a good job with my Stop Entries, which I think were the only ones in that Limit order market, maybe the 1st trade ( the one that I did not trade ) was a good trade too but I dont like to take trades were I see so many good reasons in both sides to take it.

Maybe I could hold the last trade too, but I cant know in advance if we are going to have that kind of reversals, I saw a lot of TR days that evolve in a bear or bull day after a BO and this could be one of those so even If I let some profit there, I think I did good choosing my target.

Thats all, see you tomorrow!

July 2024 Tuesday 30 ( 5min MES futures )

As you know we had 2 Inside days in a row, that means BO Mode in daily chart ( I am going to show you the daily and the 5min chart of 4 CC days RTH, so you can see the ii pattern properly and from where my trapped bear lines come from )

I wasn't sure if we were going to have a strong BO today as there is FOMC news tomorrow, but as you know, the important thing is the chart in front of us and we should stick to that.

1.- More TR in order to wait for tomorrows news ( reversals up and down )

2.- In a lot of ii patterns we have failed BO were the price take the last H/L and then completly reversed, bulls have the EMA 20, the BOP and the Gap above as targets, and bears the trapped bears below the ii pattern.

Daily chart ( Remember last bar is today’s PA )

4 days of 5 min RTH chart ( the purple/pink lines are zones where I thought some bears could have been trapped, good STC or LMT order entries, theres also swing points along the way down but the lines are exclusive for trapped bears )

I am trying to focus only on my trading session so everything that happened after my trading hours I will not review it ( I want to be true with myself and you, so only talk about what I was feeling at the moment the PA was being unfolded in real time, If I wasnt there and now I start to analyze it I will be biased because I know the outcome )

I want to be completly honest with you, and today was a really good day to make money but I wasnt able to do so ( I made some money thanks to quick scalps but that is not what I want to do, the journal is not about scalps either and even if I won, this is not the kind of trading that I want to do, I just saw how the market was going down with bad signals but at the same time trapping bulls with outside bars so I ended taking some scalps because I couldnt see any good Stop order entry at the beggining, I new about the bear strenght and the bear targets but I havent any setup so I took scalps, today went fine but this is not what I want, was just Fomo and not discipline ).

I was scalping the way down until we had the first Stop order entry, now I am going to show you the chart and the reasons why I wasnt able to take the trades.

Trades:

1.- Reasons to take it:

Bear Tight CH down

No signs of bulls

Strong SB CoL from EMA

MDT at BOP of Last Swing Long ( Yesterdays PA)

Reasons to forget about it:

We had any good Stop order entry

A lot of tails a long the way ( looked like a leg in a TR more than a BO, but now I think that this MCH down could be a bear BO on HTF, anyway I was looking at 5min chart and I missed that )

Bears reached MM of ORange

We had a Wedge at a resistance level

I decided not take it because I was scared of a failed BO, I wasnt confident about bears, I was wrong.

2.-Reasons to take it:

Bulls already did the 2 Leg PB in LTF

MDT at BOP LoY

Strong SB

L1 after Huge BO

Reasons to forget about it:

Extremly huge BO ( I wasnt sure if that was a MG BO or a Exhaustion BO )

The BO stopped at the low of the first inside bar that created the ii pattern on daily ( possible reversal ? )

This last point is more personal and it is simply that I couldnt afford the SL ( the BO was way too big for me to take the trade and the PB wasnt enought to let me take the trade with controled risk )

Thoughts —> I was able to see the micro setups that bears were doing in order to trap bulls, also we were in a Small Pullback Bear Trend ( my worst trading scenario, I am awfull with them ), I new about the bear targets and the lack of bull strength and thanks to that I made money with scalps even if I am trying to avoid them ( I am not good dealing with loses and scalping is hard because 1 loss = a lot of wins, that destroys my mental ) so for me it is best to forget about them and get rid of the risk, but FOMO was there and sadly I am not disciplined enough, I am trying thought. I know that I should not be doing this kind of trading with scalps.

After that I wasnt confident about huge Bear BO, but I remember Al saying “ sometimes the trend starts out weak but gains strength over time” today was one of those days and I wasnt ready for it, after the weak bear trend everything else that looked strong was more like an exhaustion than a bear trend gaining strenght and the reason behind this way of thinking is probably because I dont want to be the guy who sells late and gets the reversal, again fear and not PA.

Tomorrow I am not going to trade because we have FOMC news late on the day, I mostly trade the open so the market could be in a TR until news ( maybe not ), I will analyze the chart anyway for my trading session, but I am not going to trade it.

Hope you all have a nice day, see you.

July 2024 Wednesday 31 ( 5min MES futures )

Todays was FOMC day so I did not trade, yesterday the market closed the day with a huge bear bar

at the low of the daily last bear leg, and today the market opens with a HUGE gap of 100 points, right at the open of this month ( remember today is last day of the month, month magnets are important ).

Trades:

Even if I did not took any trades I want to do my homework with the open.
It is pretty rare for me to take trades with in the first bars, so even if we had thar 1st strong bear bar and some of BPA traders could argue STC, I know that I will never do that ( I dont like to trade the first bars so I am not going to mark them )

1.- I notice that when we have “normal” gaps the market use to reverse or stay in TR waiting for EMA, but when we have HUGE gaps the market use to trend in the direcction of the gap, you must already know that I dont feel good buying high on this scenarios but the setup is good.

Open TR BO + SB + FT —> TG MM ORange or even Last Month High

2.- WT + MDT + SB —> TG BOP trapped LMT bears. If I was on this sell, I think it is good to exit above that strong reversal bull bar, bears couldnt get their BE and also the bar before the bear signal was a bull bar after a strong BO bull bar so it is a high chance of trapped bulls there and the market might go up again and retest

3.- The reason is already explained in point 2, but if you take the trade you need to be aware of the HoD and see if bulls are dissapointed enough to exit or if they want to keep pushing the prices higher

After that my trading session 2h from open at max is done. I think is important to notice how trapped LMT bears at 1 high would able to exit BE and how the market reached the Last Month High.

Thoughts —> Extremely Huge gap days have something that makes me really unconfortable, I dont know if any of you guys have the same issue, but I would love to know what do you think about them and how do you trade those days, if you are biased or not and how you deal with this kind of days ( I am not talking about FOMC or big news here, only about the Huge gap days that we face sometimes ).

Have a nice day.

August 2024 Monday 5 ( 5min MES futures )

The market this days is completly crazy, with huge movements, the market is falling and today’s session started with almost 215p gap down. I really dont know what to expect on this market right now so the best option is wait for setups and follow the PA.

As you know the ATR is huge and I can take a single trade so I couldnt do anything today either.

Trades:

1.- I dont like trend from open trades but if you do, this one looks promising, atleast to reach 50% PB or BO MM. I wouldnt trade it

2.- I think this is a good setup, we are in a bear trend in HTF and a WT PB to EMA or 50% looks good, and even more good if we have a good SB and more bear bars early, even if we had bull bars, we had a pretty good looking wedge (imo). The setup failed, maybe the bull bar after the 2nd legged bear move that created a DB is reason enough to exit the trade, but I also know that the market use to do those kind of moves to trap traders out sometimes, so I think I would hold my short and bet for the HTF trend and the WT PB setup more than the DB.

If someone thinks different I would love to hear it, because I know that trade management can improve your trading a lot, but doing it poorly can result on the opposite.

Thoughts —> Not much to say honestly, the market is crashing and doing huge moves, I cant afford to trade it, I am doing my analysis because the setups are the same, but I am not taking the trades.

Have a nice day.

Good morning, friends,

I am writing this last post to say goodbye to the trading journal in the forum, lately the market is changing or going through a phase in which the ATR is not the same, it has been several weeks in which I have not been able to trade and this is causing me to feel disconnected with the market. For this and other reasons I have decided to start looking at other more affordable markets in futures that allow me to trade until the SP500 returns to its normal ATR.

I will continue with my homework and continue doing my analysis, but this time I will keep them to myself instead of posting them, because first I have to learn about this new market situation and possible change to another instrument, and also because I am seeing that in this time I have not been able to get people to interact with the post.

I want to thank all of you who have been here and have written me both in this post and privately, you have helped me a lot to think and improve my way of trading, and on the other hand I hope I have also helped you in some way with your doubts.

From now on I will continue working on this and I want you to know that I will continue to be available whenever anyone wants to discuss about trading.

Best regards and thank you very much.

Posted by: Alejandro

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because I always want to win even if I use a minimum risk

Swing trading is 40% probability, so mostly not winning.  Have you tried 1x high probability setups?

Posted by: Alejandro

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Because of all this I have decided to do Swing trading, only look for trades with a good RR and forget about micro trade management, only exit if I see another entry option better than mine, basically SL, TP or Reverse if there is a Swing setup stronger than the one I have active.

This sounds like "Always In" trading 🤓 

July 2024 Wednesday 10 (5min MES futures)

Yesterday was TRD and on Daily chart we are having a strong move up, I thought we could have 3 different scenarios:

  1.-FBO of HoY and move down TG GXL or LoY ( we are still on a Bull MC on Daily ), I dont like the fact that GX broke HoY just before the Open so I wasnt so sure if we would have the resistance I was expecting there ( maybe someone can help me with this because I dont know if that makes sense or if it is just a groundless fear )

  2.-Bull BO TG MM on Daily that I was talking this past days ( I will show the Daily chart )

  3.-TRD HoY/LoY

When I was preparing for the day I noticed that I was aiming for the HoY in order to get my entry for FBO, but I wasnt sure what I would do in case of Bull BO and how should I join that setup, as a results I was a trapped out trader.

Daily

ETH

RTH

Trades

Today I explained a lot of my reason on the chart because it is all the same swing and I couldnt do nothing more than watch it go.

At the beggining I was waiting for a test of the Highs after the 2 first CC bear bars in order to have a good sell setup and TG the LoD / Globex levels, but the market never give us the chance so I was trapped out of that short, I could have shorted after the failed H2 but the RR was bad and that trade was a scalp more than a swing at that point.

The first trade ( blue arrow ) was good in a sense, but I couldnt take it because even if I thought that we could go a little bit higher I expected trapped bulls to exit as soon as they reach their first entry and also because buying that arrow means buy at the middle of a TTR ( was a 10p range ) and I dont think that is a good area to be doing nothing ( middle of TR)

The second trade ( red arrow ) could be good even if the bulls had a strong leg up, but the context was good for a swing short. The signal never trigger so the Stop order saved me there.

After that theres a bunch of reasons and chances to buy and join the trend but as I said on the chart I wasnt able to do so. My SL is big, the RR is not good, the probability might be high but being honest I never feel safe on SPBL ( Small Pullback Bull trend ) I new that I was looking for a PB that could never happend and I was trapped out of the trade, but atleast I was able to see what was happening and I never took a sell, something that destroyed me many many times.

I would love if someone could say something about this type of days and how they manage them because being honest Small Pullback Trends are my nightmare

As you can see, today was a huge Trend day and I wasnt able to take a single trade 

Posted by: Daniel

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Re: GXH.  We already had news bar climax bar / FBO in GX, it does not need to re-test the highs, it is a climax/FBO, climactic reversals don't usually get DT/DB before testing the other side of the climax.  Just like on RTH HOY FBO sell setup, you just take it immediately you don't wait for a re-test of the extreme, because it is not really a trend that requires that re-test.

Thank you Daniel, yes you are right I will work on that and also I am going to Focus on RTH chart in order to keep things simple, only Mark GXH/L and work with that but keep in mind what you just said and be okay taking setups at HoY if they are good even if GXH is not tested.

And yes It Will take a lot of time to fix my nuances but thanks to this work and all the help that I am getting from you is going to speed Up the process.

Thank you

July 2024 Friday 12 ( 5min MES futures )

Yesterday was a huge Bear Trend Day CoL and that could lead to some scenarios:

1.-TR Open but we have to keep in mind that 50% of yesterday's PA was a TR that could be forming a MTR HL in order to let trapped Daily Bulls an exit

2.-Bear BO, if bears can show strenght, yesterday was a huge bear signal bar, reversing the las Bull BO in a single day, but at the same time is the first bar breaking a Bull MC so it is important to wait and see what could happen. One important point is that Pre market news took LoY and reverse, and maybe that is something that I should keep in mind in order to know that the market could not go there again and it didnt.

Trades

Well…as you can imagine I missed the Trend again, I thought bar 5 could be a good Buy because of Yesterday MTR and the BO + FT of the TR and GXH but being honest that 50% PB target was way to close to my entry and Bears havent even tried the 2nd attempt to reverse the BO so I couldnt take the trade, it has good points on favor but I also think that the TG and the PA wasnt that good in order to have an explosive Trend.

Before the price reached the 50% PB we started to have some big tails and dojis so I was fine with my analisis but then the price keeps racing up and could be aiming to let Daily trapped bulls exit, but again no PB’s so no entry for me.

The 2nd entry Long is good in order to BPA but I was aware of that possible DT after that big PB that was able to create big bear bars below EMA, I could expect the last Bull push after 20 EMA gap but I wasnt so sure about bulls breaking much higher having ATH there, but they did.

At the end we had the EoD STC but as I said on the chart I dont like the EoD STC/BTC setups, they look way to risky for me.

I have huge problems with Trends and I still have to do a lot of work with my mental and my BIAS, it seems like if the market dont reach the levels that I am looking for before forming the pattern to take a entry I am not able to take it..I talk a lot about this and I know the problem is there but even if I am able to think about it I am not able to act on it yet.

July 2024 Monday 15 ( 5min MES futures )

Yesterday was a Huge bull Trend from the Open where all the trapped bulls on daily chart where able to exit, after reaching new ATH the price drop with strenght leaving a big tail on the top.

After those events, Bull Climax, then huge Bear Bar and now trapped bulls being able to exit their longs I think that the market could start to do some sideways trading or drop down, the reason behind this is because a lot of bulls are taking profits here.

PP scenarios:

Yesterday started with a Huge bull Trend from the Open where all the trapped bulls on daily chart where able to exit, after reaching new ATH the price drop with strenght leaving a big tail on the top.

Afther this events on Daily chart; Bull Climax, then huge Bear Bar and now trapped bulls being able to exit their longs I think that the market could start to do some sideways trading or drop down, the reason behind this is because a lot of bulls are taking profits here.

1.- TRD ( also Powell news later on day )might be sellers at HoY and buyers at LoY, probably bears want to create a good signal bar in order to sell but bulls want the opposite so it is possible that we will have a fight at those levels

2.- Bear BO after that 1st strong leg that we have yesterday at EoD and FT, but I dont think that would happen, same reason for Bull BO, I think we are in a important level and we need to fight a bit here in order to create a strong BO

Trades

TR Open after bar 3, you could argue that B6 High is a good buy H1 at EMA after GUP but for me that wasnt a clear entry even if it worked out.

1st blue arrow entry was a good buy but at the same time the RR is bad unless you use a tight stop below the gap and being honest I am not sure if that is good.

2nd trade was a good sell with good context and I like this entry more than the L1 after the big BO because bulls showed up at EMA and created a strong bull bar so maybe they could try again a 2nd time in order to move the price up, for that reason I dont think that the L1 is a good entry even if the Bear BO was huge, I saw a lot of times Bull Trends with Huge Bear BO that reverse completly and I dont trust them ( maybe I am wrong with this ) Later we have the entry after H2 fail and close below EMA, the only bad thing about this trade again is the RR, the SL is way to far after that BO and the only way to improve the RR is using a Tight stop ( I am not sure if tight stops are good in this scenarios or not but I would love if someone can bring some light here, I am used to use Swing points as SL in order to protect my trade and not take early exits when my reading is good )

3rd trade its also a good trade in terms of context, TRD (big up + big down) + WB at LoD + 2nd entry and good bull bars closing High before the setup, maybe the only problem was that we were on a bear channel and below EMA but even with that it looked good for me.

After that trade I wasnt sure about the EoD, I thought today was a TRD but after the Bear BO below LoD I was thinking that bears could be aiming to CoY or even LoY so I wasnt able to take any trade after that Bull BO again, we had a lot of strong bars at EoD but I think its a risk that I dont want to be in.

Today was a good day but I wasnt able to to Swing it ( 2iR ) because of the RR, I dont know if there is something that I can do in order to fix this, maybe it is what it is, TRD are not so good for swings so 1iR setups with high prob are good enough

Have a nice day

July 2024 Tuesday 16 ( 5min MES futures )

I want to show you the Daily (RTH) chart first in order to have some context

The last bar is today’s PA so at the Open we couldnt see it, being the bear doji the last bar at the moment of the NY Open.

As you can see we are in TR so I was expecting TR PA for today, sellers at HoY and buyers at LoY. Todays OoD was right at the middle of Yesterday’s PA and also we had TR open with 6 overlaped bars, the TRD was indeed something to keep in mind. The day ended as a small bull bar even if the whole day as a TR.

Today was a little bit wierd for me because I couldnt see any good swing, so no trades, I saw a bunch of 1iR scenarios but nothing for 2iR, also a lot of signal bars were really bad which is common on TRD. I dont know if I should trade this days with BLSHS mentallity and aim for 1iR or stick with the swing rules and forget everythin that it is not 2iR or more, I feel bad when I dont take a trade that I see that could have a profit in there but at the same time I know that If I let myself to take scalps I will start taking a lot of them, and as you know, I am not a good trader yet, so it is possible that I will make more mistakes.

On Trades chart I am going to show you the scalp entries that I thought were worth it, because as I said before I couldnt find any good 2iR trade.

Trades

Theres a few more scalps later on the day but, what I am trying to say is that every single trade has good reasons for every one ( bears and bulls ) to take it, so I wasnt able to take a side, I dont want to take those trades because my account is small and I dont want to scale in (when you win you win really small and when you lose its a big hit, so I think I am better leaving that path alone)

I would love to know if someone who is profitable doing Swing trades can give me some tips here, If my analisis is good or if it is not, if it is good to leave those TRD and do nothing or if it is a way to win something out of them, is it worth the risk or it is better to stay with the Swing mentallity and avoid everything related to scalp/scale in in order to reach profitability.

See you.

July 2024 Wednesday 17 ( 5min MES futures )

As you know we were on TR on HTF an todays NY session started with Huge gap down, I thought we were on TR and this open was a reason to believe it, yesterday was a bull bar closing on Highs so to day could be a Bear bar in order to have that 2 days reversal that we use to have on TR.

I am not good trading with huge gaps, but there is some setups that I have in mind in order to take trades.

1.- 2nd entry FBO LoY and fill gap, 50% gap or reach Loy

2.- PB to EMA in form of DT, TR or Wedge and Trend Resumption

3.- TRD

Even if I think those scenarios are possible I am completly froze after big gap open because I dont think that the market could go much lower and keep the EU Trend, but I dont want to buy either so…I think you can see why I am not profitable after all this analisis, even if I know some BPA I am not able to use it, I see setups everywhere and reasons to take and not take a trade at the same time and that makes me hesitate and dont pull the trigger, and if I do I exit as soon as I have some PB, sometimes even in the entry bar which its a same.

Trades

There are a few more entries after that las buy ( loss ) but I couldnt see anyone with 2iR, everything looked like TR

One more time theres no profits for me today;

1.- I couldnt take the first trade because I didnt like the way the setup was formed

2.- I couldnt take the 2nd trade because I was aware of the possible WT to EMA

3.- I took the 3rd trade, Reversal but I exit almost BE after L1 PB 50%

4.- I was so hype about the reversal that I couldnt take the 4th trade, I only exit my longs but I didnt sell because I thought we could have more buyers at the lows after those 2 bull bars

5.- As you can see even if today was a bear day I was so eager to buy because I see the gap as something that must be filled and that is really bad.. I took the 5th trade expecting that reversal up and I took the loss

It seems like I am able to spot the BPA setups but I cant take them, I dont know when the bull case is over the bear case or viceversa, and I am constantly looking for reasons why someone should take or exit their positions making me unsure about why should I hold when I can see setups for the opposite force against me.

I have also tested things like exit below strong bear bar and get in again if strong bull bar but I have even more losers doing that ( if you are in longs and theres a bear bar and you exit but then buy again, now I have a loss and a worst entry point. That happened to me a lot of times and that is the main reason why I try to not manage my trades unless theres a reason that makes me want to be trading in the other position, but as you can see I have always reasons for both sides and I cant see which is the strongest)

July 2024 Thursday 18 ( 5min MES futures )

Yesterday was a channel down TR but also was a Huge bear trend day CoL ( big gap on EU ) so we could have this PP scenarios:

1.- Reversal Up at LoY and keep with the TR

2.- Bear BO with FT on LoY ( notice that almost all the trend days try to create the wick early on the day )

Trades

I am going to point the trades in order and comment a little bit about them if needed, each number represent that trade ( always following the order )

1.- I didnt take the trade, even if there are reasons to take it I was also concern about the fact that we were in AIL after bars 6,7,8, also we have open gap, and important magnets like GXH and EMA 20 (1h TF) were really close, so I thought that the price could go a little bit higger in order to test those levels before droping.

2.- I couldnt take this trade either ( but now was because my account is really small and the SL “Swing High” was huge, I cant afford that risk in one trade ) Even if the L1 looked good I thought that the 2 Bull reversal bars were strong enough to maybe have a 2nd leg so I didnt wanted to take the trade an use the SL above the L1 Signal because the price could reach it before going down again.

It seems like I am a master on being trapped out of trades

I dont use to trade late on the session, even if I do it sometimes, but I want to say what I think about this trades too even If I wasnt there. ( I want to sharemy point of view in order to show you how I see the chart so you can help me to improve )

3.- I think this is a good trade but you shouldnt aim for a huge trend after this incredible bear day, this is a minor reversal trade but with really good context and EMA TG was almost at 2iR, I would be quick to exit if I see something wrong, as you know minor reversals are not the best setups to swing xD but this one had a good RR

4.- This trade had really good points and really good context after the 50% PB of the leg and retest of LLW, I think that is one of the trades where you can use the Signal bar or the bar before as SL

Now I am going to show you the 1h TF in order to show the HTF MM, I hope you can find them usefull:

July 2024 Friday 19 ( 5min MES futures )

Yesterday was a Huge Bear Trend day and I thought that we could have:

1.- TR

2.- Little bit more Down but then TR

Being honest I wasnt expecting 3 strong bear days but it is what it is, today is Friday and bears where looking for a strong bear bar on weekly chart.

Trades

1.- It is true that we were on a triangle BO pattern, but for me, even if the first bar is lower than the rest, when we have a lot of TTR bars I use to “forget” that bar1 and focus on the actual TTR. For me all that PA was BLSHS and every trend bar was faded, so I cant see that as a Stop Sell

2.- This is a good trade, I think that placing the SL above the SB is better in this scenario, I dont want to be in the trade if the price breaks that point and also we can have a better RR in order to reach that MM

3.- I dont like this kind of Wedges, even if they can lead to good profits, we were on Bear CH with Gaps, and every reversal have more chances to be minor

4.- The price never reached the Swing LH so we were still in AIS, we had our first EMA Gap so it is high chance to have a last push down in order to retest the lows before transition in TR or Reversal, I thought that selling the bar before this one was risky even if MDT because we were still above EMA, after the BO the % of succes is higher but the RR is worse, so it is up to you to take ir not

5.-Good trade and context but late in the day, also Friday, so anything could happen

Thoughts—> I am having problems taking the first Swing, a lot of times the price start the Swing without taking any mayor swing point or L/HoY, other bunch of times, the price comes close to those levels and then reverse to start the swing to the other side and I miss that too. I need to improve this opening swing because I cant take any trade before any of those levels are taken and that is trapping me out of many good swings, I have to study more and see what I can do in order to spot that first Swing.

July 2024 Monday 22 ( 5min MES futures )

We had 3 strong bear days in a row, reaching EMA on daily chart, last 2 days were a Bear CH and thats important:

1.- TR between LoY and Start of Bear Channel

2.- More Bear BO ( low probability but possible )

3.- Strong reversal Up, maybe from LoY to HoY but after 3 strong bear bars on daily I think we will have LMT sellers at HoY

Trades:

1.- I was looking for a good SB in order to take the WT but we had a bad SB ( huge tail at the bottom ) also 5 bars MCH up so I didnt take the wedge. Then we had the BO and I was praying in order to have a PB so I could sell but we never had that PB and the Risk from that bar was bigger than the ammount that I let myself to take a trade so I missed that trade.

2.- Thats a good setup for bulls, but after that strong spike down I was expecting a second leg down in order to reach ORange MM or GXL CoY so I didnt take the trade, If I was holding a short I would exit above that bull bar.

3.- Similar scenario as trade 1, I was looking for good SB and we got the BO, in this case we had a PB in order to sell again the L1 but I wasnt confortable selling that because at that point we were on a TR, also 50% of the Range and I dont want to take trades at the middle of the range, we could go High to 50%PB of whole bear leg or Top of the daily bear channel which was a little bit higher than HoD, or we could go lower and fill the gap. Both scenarios were possible so I think taking a trade at 50% of that Range isnt the best bet.

4.-I cant say much about this one, I think it is a really good bet, even if OoD isnt a 2iR

Thoughts:

I am having a lot of problems with signal bars on 5min because they take too long to form, and a lot of times we are in a key level, the bar close with bad signal bar and then we have to wait another 5 minuts in order to see the next bar and I lose a lot of trades because of this ( like the two short trades ) also I am trading Micro E mini futures and I dont want to risk more than 50$ per trade ( I have small account 2000$ prop firms) and theres a lot of times when the signal bar risk is higher than 50$ so I cant take the trade even if the setup is good, I was wondering if it is good to change my TF to 3min since I saw the setups still works and the risk is less, this way I could take more trades. I used to trade only 2 to 3 hours since the open and the setups on the open happens way faster than the setups on other times of the day, so it is easier to see the “wedges, DT/DB, PB, etc” on this TF, I did my research and I think it could be good for me but I am not sure if I am doing the right thing or not by thinking on it.

Anyone here trades another TF? do you use the same PA rules? Opening Gap PB to EMA works the same on other TF? Signals works the same?