Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 12:49 mins.
Summary
We have witnessed a decline of more than 20% over this week in Bitcoin and the price reached the 2024’s trading range apex. Now the price is deciding whether stay in that trading range area again or even test below $50000, or come back to $100000 area.
Transcript
Hi everyone, welcome back to this week’s Bitcoin price action analysis. My name is Josep Capo, and I’m a Price Action Trader and an author for the Brooks Trading Course website. Thank you for joining us as we take a look at Bitcoin on both the weekly and daily charts.
It has been a truly interesting week for the markets and specially for Bitcoin given that we’ve witnessed a decline of more than 20% over the last seven days.
If we look at the weekly chart, the price action we are seeing is incredibly clean.. To understand where we are, we have to look back at our previous reports. When Bitcoin was first approaching the $100,000 milestone, we projected a “measured move” based on the height of the previous major drawdown. At that time—toward the end of 2024—that calculation gave us a target of approximately $120,000.
We also noted back then that $100,000 would act as a critical level of gravity. We expected the price to oscillate and gravitate around that figure for some time. After the market eventually reached that $120,000 measured move target and reversed, we anticipated a test of the breakout point from the 2024 trading range.
Last week, we took that analysis a step further. We noted that even if that breakout point held as support, a $10,000 drop would bring the price down to the “apex” of the 2024 trading range. This apex represents a historical “price of agreement,” making it a natural magnet for a retest. As it happens, that level aligns perfectly with the 50% retracement of the move from the all-time highs, landing us right around $63,000.
What Comes Next?
Currently, the market is searching for a “fair price”—a level where the highest number of participants agree to conduct business. Logically, this area sits within the trading range between $50,000 and $75,000. However, we have just seen a very strong reversal from the apex of that range.
If the price manages to climb back toward the $75,000 area during the upcoming week, I believe Bitcoin has a legitimate chance of returning to the $100,000 level before the year is out. This makes the next few days critical. If, instead, the price returns to this week’s lows and stagnates there for a few weeks, we will likely see a test of the major higher low at $50,000.
Given the strength of the reversal we saw from this week’s lows, I don’t expect a massive, immediate crash over the next week or two. However, the location of the weekly close is crucial. We need to see if Bitcoin stays within the 2024 trading range or manages to trade and close primarily above it.
The Significance of $100,000
I’ve often been asked why $100,000 is such a pivotal level. Initially, it was purely psychological—a big round number. In the options market, these numbers represent the most heavily traded strikes, which exerts a significant influence on market direction. Today, however, its importance is structural. We’ve seen the price gravitate above and below this level multiple times; it has become the central axis of what appears to be a major trading range.
It is also important to revisit our discussion regarding the monthly chart. Following a powerful bull trend—like the one we saw from 2023 through the late 2025 peak—markets typically transition into a trading range rather than an immediate bear trend. There is a distinct difference between the 2025 peak and the 2021 peak. In 2021, the move was highly climatic. This time, the price has moved within a more structured channel and completed a standard measured move. To put it in perspective, the 2021 measured move was more than triple the 2017 major drawdown; our current move has been far more measured.
In conclusion for the weekly view: the reaction to the 2024 range test is everything. Because the reversal from the lows was so sharp, I view a test of $75,000 as more likely than a drop to $50,000. My current thesis is that the “fair price” for Bitcoin is likely situated between $90,000 and $100,000 rather than down at the $50,000 mark.
The Daily Chart: Analyzing the Bear Breakout
Turning our attention to the daily chart, this week was a continuation of the bear breakout that began the week prior. In fact, for the entire week, the price failed to test the high of any previous day—a streak that may finally break this weekend.
The real “drama” occurred on Thursday. In a single day, the price plummeted 15%, creating a massive bear bar late in the breakout. This move successfully reached the downward measured move target based on the height of the previous trading range.
What is fascinating, however, is that this massive Thursday bear bar was not met with further selling. Instead, it was clearly bought. This suggests profit-taking by bears rather than a massive influx of new bulls. For us as traders, this is a clear signal: bears felt that prices at $63,000 to $65,000 were “too cheap” to maintain short positions. Simply put, sellers don’t want to sell at those levels anymore.
Resistance and Gaps
Now we must ask: where are bears comfortable selling? We know they sold aggressively above the gap I’ve highlighted in the red horizontal box on the chart. A gap like this indicates a moment of low participation where sellers were so eager to exit or short that they hit “sell at market” regardless of the price. This tells us there is strong resistance above $80,000.
If bulls push the price back into that gap, we should expect sideways or downward trading as it hits that resistance. While the price can occasionally blast through such levels, the high-probability event is a reversal or a pause. As a professional trader, I always prefer to frame my scenarios around high-probability outcomes.
Short-Term Outlook
Finally, let’s look at Friday’s bull bar. In a tight bear channel, bull bars are often seen as sell signals. However, Friday’s bar was a “surprise” bull bar—it was simply too large to ignore. While I wouldn’t say the market is “always-in long” yet, I certainly wouldn’t want to be short. If I were holding a short position, I would exit above that surprise bull bar. Many bears viewed that move as a “gift” to exit their positions.
At a minimum, I expect this to lead to sideways-to-upward movement. There are clearly buyers sitting below Friday’s bull bar. For those of you trading intraday, I would be inclined to look for bull reversals or breakouts given the current strength. If the price drifts back down and becomes “comfortable” within the $65,000 zone, I will re-evaluate this thesis.
For my fellow options income traders, Friday’s upward reversal is a favorable setup for bull put spreads. We are likely to see volatility diminish, which benefits those building positions on the way down. Just remember to keep your risk-reward ratios in check—I recommend a maximum of 2 parts risk for every 1 part reward.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
I might have different opinions with you, but I have to admit your analysis are great every time, especially your analysis for AIS of BTC last week. For this week, I might consider this bull leg since last Friday as first leg pull back and it is a tight channel. Since Tight Channel will not be reversed immediately, I am waiting for L2 setup with good looking entry bar. I also not consider it will go to 8w USD this price level every soon, since last week’s bear trend seems like a small pb trend until Friday to me, so I will see 7.4w to 7.7w as a strong resistance range, and the bears will want to keep the gap between 8w (it is true a very important resistance level, but I do not think the gap will be closed soon and test back to 10w). More likely, we are going to having a broad channel down or TR.