Market Overview: Bitcoin
- April closed with a +14% gain.
- Bitcoin ended Q1 2025 around $80,000.
- This price was about 30% below the all-time high and well under Q4 2024’s close.
- That price shift shaped expectations for April’s flow of capital.
- Asset managers often rebalance quarterly.
- At Q4’s end, Bitcoin was facing resistances.
- At Q1’s end, the market was at support.
- April was expected to test highs.
Bitcoin
The Monthly chart of Bitcoin
- Structure Breakdown
- January formed a tight bull channel
- Small or no pullbacks
- Driven by the breakout from an eight-month bull flag
- That bull flag spanned $50,000 to $75,000
- The breakout fueled the run to $100,000
- January formed a tight bull channel
- February changed the tone:
- A strong bear bar closed below January’s low
- That broke the tight bull channel structure
- It raised the odds of a larger range forming
- March brought uncertainty:
- Volatility increased, over $15,000 of price range
- It closed slightly red, but held above February’s low
- Buyers defended $80,000
- Sellers failed to push lower, a sign of weak bears at the support zone
- April’s Outside Up Bar
- April printed an outside up bar
- It closed near its high, a clear sign of demand
- It traded above March’s high, forming a High 2 setup
- Every micro double bottom is a High 2
- The support came from key levels:
- Breakout Point of 2024’s higher high
- Buyers stepped in near March’s close and below its low.
- That action confirmed the area as a buy zone.
- Aligned with quarterly inflow expectations
- Looking Ahead, two main scenarios emerge:
- Small Pullback Bull Trend
- Getting new all-time highs in the following months is key to see a bull trend continue.
- Broad Trading Range
- Sideways action, difficulty to visit prior all-time highs, may lead to another test at the $70,000 area at some point this year.
- Small Pullback Bull Trend
The Weekly chart of Bitcoin
- 2024 Structure Review
- Bitcoin ranged between $50,000 and $75,000 for most of 2024
- Broke out through $74,000, rallied to $100,000 by November
- Brief overshoot to $108,000
- Formed a 3-month double top
- Neckline near $90,000 broke down, retested $75,000
- That $75,000 area was critical:
- Breakout point from the 2024 range
- Matched IBIT ETF breakaway gap
- Strong buying reaction confirmed support
- No panic selling behavior
- High 3 Reversal
- After a test of 2025 lows, price printed a High 3 setup
- We flagged this as a legit setup to buy, the first legit setup since the drawdown
- The trigger led to a good follow through bar
- And finally, last week printed a strong bull bar
- This week extended the move
- Bull Positioning
- Buyers are up more than 1x risk
- Many are locking in profits or adjusting stops
- $100,000 is nearby and could cap short-term upside
- Expect profit-taking in that area
- The High 3 setup wasn’t high-probability
- It came inside a bear channel
- But the reward-to-risk ratio was attractive
- Traders aimed for 2:1, $100,000 is slightly below 2:1, but I think ok to take full or almost full profits
- Would you have taken that trade? Did the structure justify the risk?
- Trend and Support
- Trend traders may still wait for a close above the ATH
- Or wait for a bull flag within the range, and then buy the breakout of that bull flag
- That brings them a lower risk entry point than the current one.
- There should be support between current prices and the 26-week EMA
- Especially below this week’s low
- Bear Positioning
- Bears lack a clean entry
- Selling strength has failed consistently
- They may look for a Low 2 or Low 3 setup
- That requires a second leg sideways to up to happen first
- Practical Takeaways
- April’s gains followed the Q1 rebalancing setup we discussed
- High 3 Bulls may manage risk near $100,000, an area of likely profit-taking
- Bull Breakout and trend traders want some kind of compression before engaging
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all the weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
