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Crude Oil Bull Inside Bar & Trading Range

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Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures

The Crude oil futures monthly candlestick was a bull inside bar with a long tail above. The bulls want a breakout above while the bears want a breakout below June’s range. The first breakout from an inside bar can fail 50% of the time. Reversals and poor follow-through are common within a trading range.

Crude oil futures

The Monthly crude oil chart

Crude Oil Monthly: June Bull Inside Bar, BO Mode, Trending TR
  • The June monthly Crude Oil candlestick was an inside bull bar with a long tail above.
  • Last month, we said that the odds slightly favor the trading range to continue.
  • The bears got a reversal down from a double-top bear flag (Dec and April).
  • They hope that June was simply a pullback and want another retest and breakout attempt below the March low.
  • The bulls want a reversal up from a wedge bottom (Dec 9, Mar 20, and May 4) and a double bottom (Mar 20 and May 4).
  • They hope that the strong selloff in May was simply a sell vacuum retest of the March low and want a reversal up from a lower low major trend reversal.
  • However, they have not yet been able to create credible buying pressure (strong bull bars with follow-through buying) still.
  • The bulls will need to create a follow-through bull bar to increase the odds of the bull leg beginning.
  • Since this week was an inside bar, the market is in breakout mode.
  • The bulls want a breakout above while the bears want a breakout below June’s range.
  • The first breakout from an inside bar can fail 50% of the time.
  • The market has been forming a trending trading range.
  • The candlesticks are overlapping sideways therefore the market remains in a trading range.
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) in trading ranges until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
  • Reversals and poor follow-through are common within a trading range.

The Weekly crude oil chart

Crude Oil Weekly: Tight TR, Poor Follow-Through, HL MTR?
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a bull doji closing near its high with a long tail below.
  • Last week, we said that the market is in a 31-week trading range and a 7-week tight trading range. Poor follow-through and reversals are common within a trading range.
  • This week traded below last week’s low but reversed to close higher after that.
  • The bears want a retest of the May 4 low followed by a breakout below.
  • However, they have not yet been able to create sustained follow-through selling from the 8-week tight trading range.
  • They will need to create strong consecutive bear bars to increase the odds of a retest and a breakout attempt below.
  • The bulls want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal (June 12) and a micro wedge (May 31, Jun 12, and June 28).
  • They want a retest of the 20-week exponential moving average followed by the bear trend line, and the April high. 
  • The bulls will need to create follow-through buying next week to increase the odds of higher prices.
  • The market is in a 32-week trading range. The last 8 weeks formed a tight trading range. 
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are common within a trading range.
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) in trading ranges until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
  • If the bears continue to fail to create sustained follow-through selling, the odds will swing in favor of the bull leg to begin within a few weeks.

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