Crude Oil Follow-through Bull Bar

Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures

The Crude oil futures formed a follow-through bull bar on the weekly chart. The bulls hope that this is the start of the bull leg to retest the April high. The bears want the 20-week exponential moving average and the bear trend line to act as resistance. They want the market to stall and retest the May low.

Crude oil futures

The Weekly crude oil chart

• This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a bull bar closing near its high.
• Last week, we said if the bears continue to fail to create sustained follow-through selling, the odds will swing in favor of the bull leg to begin within a few weeks.
• This week was a follow-through bull bar. The bull leg may be starting.
• The bears want a retest of the May 4 low followed by a breakout below.
• However, they have not yet been able to create sustained follow-through selling from the 9-week tight trading range.
• The bears hope that this week was simply a retest of the tight trading range high and want a reversal down from around the 20-week exponential moving average and bear trend line area.
• They will need to create strong consecutive bear bars to increase the odds of a retest and a breakout attempt below the May low.
• The bulls want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal (June 12) and a micro wedge (May 31, Jun 12, and June 28).
• They got a retest of the 20-week exponential moving average and the bear trend line. The next target for the bulls is the April high. 
• They will need to continue creating follow-through buying trading far above the 20-week exponential moving average and the bear trend line to increase the odds of higher prices.
• The market is in a 33-week trading range. The last 9 weeks formed a tight trading range. 
• Poor follow-through and reversals are common within a trading range.
• Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) in trading ranges until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
• If the bears continue to fail to create sustained follow-through selling, the odds will swing in favor of the bull leg to begin. It may have begun this week. 
• Traders will see if the bulls can continue creating follow-through buying, or will the market still trade slightly higher but stall and reverses lower again?

The Daily crude oil chart

• Crude oil traded sideways to up for the week.
• Previously, we said if the bears fail to create sustained follow-through selling breaking far below the trading range low within a few weeks, the odds of the bull leg beginning will increase.
• The current move-up is in an 8-bar bull micro channel. That means persistent buying.
• The bulls want a reversal up from a wedge bull flag (May 31, Jun 12, and June 28) and a higher low major trend reversal.
• They want a strong breakout above the 9-week tight trading range and a retest of the April high.
• They have gotten consecutive closes above the 20-day exponential moving average.
• The bulls need to continue creating follow-through buying breaking far above the 9-week tight trading range high (June 5) to increase the odds of the bull leg beginning.
• There may be buyers below the first pullback below such a strong bull microchannel.
• The bears got a three-legged move down (May 31, Jun 12, and Jun 28) but fell short of the trading range low.
• They hope that the recent move-up was simply a minor pullback and want another leg down testing the trading range low (May 4).
• They want the market to stall around the 9-week tight trading range high area (June 5).
• Crude Oil has been trading within a tight trading range in the last 9 weeks.
• It is also in a larger 33-week trading range. Poor follow-through and reversals are common in trading ranges. 
• Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) in trading ranges until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
• If the bears fail to create sustained follow-through selling breaking far below the trading range low within a few weeks, the odds of the bull leg beginning will increase. It may have already begun.
• Traders will see if the bulls can continue to create follow-through buying or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the 9-week trading range high area.

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