Trading Update: Tuesday July 7, 2026
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The market is trying to break out to the upside after forming a triangle for the past several weeks, following the two-month rally up to the June high.
- At the moment, the odds are that the market is going to test the June 15th high, which is the most recent major lower high.
- After that, the odds favor the market getting a rally and a second leg up to the all-time high.
- Because of how bullish the higher time frames have been, the odds are against the bears getting a strong downside breakout.
- Even if the market breaks below the triangle and the June low, there will likely be buyers not far below it.
- The bears are hopeful that the market will form a double top with the June 15th high, break below the neckline at the June low, and fall for a measured move down.
- That outcome is low probability, which means there are likely buyers willing to scale in lower at the moment.
- The odds are that the market will test the all-time high and the 7,700 round number.
- Even if the market does test those levels, the odds still favor sideways trading over the next several weeks.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The E-mini gapped down on the open and went sideways for the first four bars.
- The bears formed a second-entry sell with bar 4 closing on its low, and the market broke out to the downside, forming six consecutive bear bars down to the bar 9 low.
- Bar 9 was a strong enough bear breakout, and even though it was climactic and the odds favored at least a brief pullback, the odds also favored a second leg down.
- The bulls got a strong enough reversal bar on bar 10 after the bears broke below the previous day’s low.
- Even though there were likely sellers above bar 10 initially, it increased the probability that the market would test back up to the bar 10 high over the next several bars.
- The market got a second leg down to bar 15 and then formed a double bottom with the bar 15 low and the bar 27 low.
- Bar 27 was a strong enough bull reversal bar that the odds favored some kind of second leg up.
- That meant the always-in bears were likely going to exit above bar 27, while the always-in bulls would look to buy whenever they get a situation like bar 10, where a bull reversal bar closes on its high and the sell-off from the bar 1 high is not as strong as it could be.
- When you get a bull reversal bar such as bar 27, there is generally a 60% chance, if not greater, that the market will test back up to the trend high.
- Because of that, with bar 27 closing on its high, the bulls had the confidence to buy, betting on at least a test of the bar 10 high.
- As of bar 48, the market is going sideways after the sell-off down to the bar 15 low and the rally up to bar 36.
- That is big down, big up, and big confusion, which increases the odds that the market will probably end up going sideways for the next several bars.
- The bulls are hopeful that the market will rally and get a second leg up to the bar 1 high.
- The reality, however, is that the odds are the market will probably pull back and possibly test around the 50% level, measured from the bar 27 low up to the bar 44 high.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
