E-mini Follow-through Bull Bar

Market Overview: S&P 500 E-mini Futures

The market formed an E-mini follow-through bull bar this week. Bulls want a strong breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent trading range, projecting to around 7550. Bears see the rally as climactic and want at least a small sideways to down pullback lasting a few weeks.

S&P500 E-mini futures

The Weekly S&P 500 E-mini chart

• This week formed a small follow-through bull bar closing near its high.
• Last week, we said the market was in a sideways-to-up phase and could trade slightly higher in the coming weeks.
• Bulls have generated a strong rally, with consecutive bull bars closing near their highs and micro gaps, indicating strength and urgency.
• Bulls want a strong breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent trading range, projecting to around 7550.
• Bulls want a spike and channel pattern lasting several months.
• If the market pulls back, bulls want it to be weak, forming a High 1 and a breakout pullback buy setup.
• Bulls want the prior all-time high (January 28) to act as support.
• If the market trades lower, bulls want the 20-week EMA to act as support.
• They expect at least a small second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg high (now April 24) high after any pullback.
• Bears see the current move as a buy vacuum retest of the prior high.
• They want the breakout above the January 28 all-time high to lack follow-through and form a failed breakout.
• Bears see the rally as climactic and want at least a small sideways to down pullback lasting a few weeks.
• Bears need strong bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
• The market has rallied strongly over the past four weeks, with consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
• The market is likely Always In Long.
• The strength of the move increases the probability of at least a small sideways-to-up leg after any pullback.
• For now, the market could still trade at least a little higher.

The Daily S&P 500 E-mini chart

• The market formed a small pullback followed by a new high on Friday.
• Last week, we said the recent rally was slightly climactic, increasing the odds of a small two-legged sideways-to-down pullback, likely followed by a second leg sideways to up.
• Bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high and want it to form a higher high major trend reversal.
• They want the breakout to lack follow-through and result in a failed breakout.
• Bears see the recent rally as climactic and hope the sideways range this week will be the final flag of the rally.
• They want a larger two-legged sideways-to-down pullback to the 20-day EMA.
• Bears need consecutive strong bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
• Bulls generated a strong retest of the prior all-time high (January 28), followed by a breakout.
• The rally formed a spike with a small pullback this week, indicating strong buying pressure.
• Bulls see this week as a pullback testing the January 28 breakout point and want trend resumption.
• They want a measured move based on the height of the trading range, projecting to around 7550.
• If the market trades lower, bulls want any pullback to be weak and sideways, with overlapping candlesticks and prominent lower tails, followed by a second leg sideways to up transitioning into a spike and channel bull trend.
• Bulls want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
• Bulls need sustained follow-through buying to increase the odds of trend resumption.
• The recent rally formed gaps and micro gaps, indicating urgency and strength.
• The pullback this week was weak, with limited follow-through selling.
• The market is likely Always In Long.
• The move up covered many points in a short time and is slightly climactic. While the trend is strong, pullbacks can occur at any time.
• Traders will watch whether bulls can create more follow-through buying into new all-time highs, or whether the market stalls nearby and forms a larger two-legged sideways-to-down pullback.
• For now, the market could still trade slightly higher.
• Odds slightly favor any pullback being minor.

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