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E-mini Weak Follow-Through for Bears

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Trading Update: Friday December 19, 2025

S&P E-mini market analysis

E-mini daily chart

  • The E-mini formed a weak follow-through bar after Wednesday’s downside breakout. Yesterday was a low one, short with a tail below the bar. This increased the probability that there would be buyers below.
  • While Wednesday’s bear breakout bar is good for the bears, the context is bad for the bears. It is testing around the midpoint of the late November rally, and it’s falling below 6,800, which was a likely support level for the bulls.
  • We were approaching the end of the year. The bulls want a rally to the all-time high, and to be able to say that the market closed on its high for the year.
  • If the market does close on its high, the bears will have a chance next year at getting a close below the open of the year.
  • At the moment, it looks like the market is going to try to rally to the all-time high in the 7,000 round number before the end of the year.
  • E-mini has not yet reached the 7,000 major round number. If you go back to the December contract, you will see that the price never reached 7,000. When the E-mini contract rolled over to the March contract of 2026, the price got adjusted, making it appear the market reached 7,000.
  • Because of this, the odds are the market’s going to rally above the all-time high and truly reach the 7,000 round number.
  • The risk for traders is that the market continues to go sideways in this trading range for the rest of the year.

E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Today gapped up in the open and has formed a bull trend since bar one.
  • As of bar six, the bulls have a six-bar bull microchannel. While this is good for the bulls, the market is forming a lot of overlap:
  • Big bull bar on bar 1, disappointing follow-through on bar 2.
  • Big bull bar on bar 3, disappointment on bars 4 and 5.
  • This makes the market appear like it’s forming some version of a parabolic wedge.
  • The risk for the bulls is that the market is forming a climactic rally to yesterday’s high and may go sideways for several bars.
  • The bears need to make the market go sideways and build more selling pressure if they’re going to get a reversal down.
  • At the moment, the market is forming a small pullback bull trend and a trend from the open. The reality is that this trend from the open is probably going to evolve into a trading range.
  • When you get a trend from the open, 60% of the time, the market evolves into a trading range. 20% of the time, that trend from the open lasts all day. The odds are this is one of those 60% of the time.
  • The risk for the bulls is that the rally to bar 6 will be a failed breakout of yesterday’s range, and the market will get pulled back into the trading range from yesterday, testing back down to yesterday’s 50 high or even yesterday’s bar 76 high. These are breakout points, and bears sold those breakout points, scaling in higher, betting on a trading range.
  •  If the rally up to bars 6 and 7 ends up being a failed breakout of yesterday’s range, the market will get vacuumed back to the midpoint of the range, allowing those bears to make money. This is the risk that the bulls face.

Yesterday’s E-mini setups

SP500 E-mini 5-Min Bear Channel Breakout on Gap Up Then Trading Range Day

Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.

The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.

Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action

SP500 E-mini 5-Min Bull Trend From Open Then Bull Channel into Trading Range

Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.

E-mini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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