Trading Update: Tuesday May 17, 2022
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Emini yesterday was a doji bar following Friday’s entry bar. This is disappointing for bulls and a sign of trading range price action. The market is getting near the bottom of the 3-month trading range (February – April) and will likely test the May 2 low today or tomorrow.
- Yesterday’s doji is very close to May 2 low, an important magnet. It is the bottom of the trading range and a logical area for bulls to take profits. Some bulls who were disappointed by the selloff down to May 12 would take profits early just in case the market did not reach the May 2 low.
- The reversal up from May 12 is strong enough that the odds favor at least a small second leg up.
- The bears hope the current rally will form a double top around the May 2 low and keep the May 2 gap open. This would increase the odds of the market needing to fall below the May 12 low.
- Overall, the market will likely have to rally for a couple of legs and reach the May 2 high and possibly the May 4 high before the bears have a chance at a second leg down.
- The bears want to prevent the bulls from getting a strong reversal up. The bears hope to get a lower high below March 29 that will test below May 12.
- Traders should expect sideways to up over the next few days.
- Another note is that the market will probably have to go above the high of last week’s 4,069 and trigger the stop entry buy on the weekly chart.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 65 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The bulls got a strong breakout during the overnight Globex session and the early morning session.
- The U.S. day session will gap up today.
- At the moment, the Globex market is at the May 2 low and will likely stay around this price during the U.S. day session. The bulls want today to close above the May 2 low as a sign of strength by the bulls.
- The bears want to undo the damage the bulls have caused by creating a bear trend day and reversing the gap (assuming we get one).
- The market will gap up, which means traders should expect a pullback to the moving average before there is a swing trade as the highest probability. This means traders should expect a trading range open.
- Since there will be a gap up, this increases the odds of the market having a bull trend day today.
- As usual, traders should wait for a credible stop entry or strong breakout with follow-through before trading.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The bulls had a strong rally during the overnight session. The market is now above the May 12 high and back into the 10-bar tight trading range.
- As I said in the prior blog post, the odds favored a failed bear breakout below the 10-bar tight trading range, which is what is happening right now.
- The reversal up is setting up a final flag on the daily chart, and the bulls hope this will give them enough energy to break above the May 5 high.
- The next target for the bulls would be the bottom of the March – April trading range.
- The bulls have a breakout just under the 20-bar exponential moving average, which will be resistance.
- Traders will pay close attention to how today’s bar closes. Will it close as a strong bull bar closing near its high, or will it have a big tail on top, indicating selling into the close.
- If today closes on a high, traders will be eager to see if tomorrow is a strong follow-through bar as well. This would increase the odds of the market becoming always in long and increase the probability of higher prices.
- Overall, today will be an important bar for the bulls and bears.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
- Al will post chart after the close.
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day summary
- Today was mostly a trading range that was sloped up (broad bull channel). On the open, the market formed consecutive wedge bottoms around 7:45 PT. When you get consecutive bottoms on the open, there is an increased risk of the market reversing up.
- The market also tested a 50% pullback of today’s open to yesterday’s close. This was likely to be a support level.
- The market formed a triangle during the first hour of the day.
- The bears got a breakout around 7:30 PT, but the follow-through was bad, which increased the odds of an opening reversal.
- The bulls rallied back to the open of the day and went sideways going into the report.
- The big bear breakout bar around 11:15 PT was big, but it had a big tail below, which increased the odds of breakout failing.
- The follow-through after 11:15 PT was bad for the bears, and the market reversed up during the final hour and closed on its high.
- Today was a good bar for the bulls on the daily chart. Although the body was weak, the bulls managed to close above the May 2 lows, which is a sign of strength for the bulls.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.