Trading Update: Thursday June 29, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini is testing the midpoint (4,431) of the June selloff.
- The rally over the past two days is disappointing for the bears and a reminder that the market is in a trading range.
- The bears hope that 4,431 will act as strong enough resistance to get a second leg down and a test of the June low.
- The problem for the bears is that the bulls have a 3-bar bull micro channel just above the 20-exponential moving average. This will increase the odds of a second leg up.
- It was reasonable to buy the June 15th bull close, especially if one was willing to scale in lower. This will increase the odds that the market will have to reach the June 15th close over the next few weeks.
- However, the market may have to test the June 26th low before the market can reach the June 15th close.
- There will be bulls who bought the June 15th close and lower. Some will be so disappointed with the trade that they will be happy to exit breakeven on the entire trade. This means there is probably resistance around d 4,440, which is around the midpoint of June 15th.
- Overall, the daily chart is likely forming a trading range and will be sideways for the next several weeks.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 3 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The overnight Globex session formed a second leg up following yesterday’s end-of-day rally.
- Looking at the 60-minute Globex chart, the current rally forms a possible wedge top, increasing the odds of a two-legged pullback today.
- I am writing this before the 5:30 AM PT report, so things can look much different after the report is released.
- The odds are that today will have a lot of trading range price action.
- The bulls will probably become disappointed with today’s price action.
- As always, traders should assume that the open will have a lot of limit order trading.
- Most traders should consider not trading for the first 6-12 bars unless they are quick to make decisions and comfortable with limit order trading.
- Traders should try and catch the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour.
- It is common for the opening swing to begin after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Traders should pay attention to the open of the day and 4,431, which is the midpoint of the recent selloff that began on June 16th.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD forms a triangle (blue lines), a breakout mode pattern.
- The odds favored a second leg down after the June 23rd bear breakout. Yesterday may be the attempt at the second leg.
- The bears want a better-looking second leg down and one that falls below the June 23rd bear breakout.
- The bull sees the market forming a triangle and wants a second leg up from the June 15th bull breakout.
- It is common for breakouts like June 15th to have brief follow-through, such as June 21st, followed by a deep pullback and a more significant second leg up.
- The bulls want an upside breakout over the past ten days and a test of the May high. The bears want the opposite and a downside breakout of the past ten days.
- Overall, traders will pay attention to today’s signal bar. Bulls want a bull reversal bar closing on its high, and the bears want to prevent this. The market is in a tight trading range, a limit order market. Traders should expect stop order entries to continue to be disappointing.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.