Trading Update: Monday September 25, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini closed below the prior day’s low last Friday, continuing the strong bear breakout. The bears see last week’s breakout as strong enough to make the market Always In Short. At a minimum, the Bears expect a 2nd leg down.
- The bulls are hopeful that last week’s bear breakout will form a 2nd leg trap and reverse up. While this is possible, it is currently low probability. It will become a higher probability if the bulls begin to form more buying pressure in the form of bull bars closing near their highs.
- The bears will probably begin to take partial profits soon, which will cause the market to go sideways for a couple of days.
- Traders will pay close attention to the buying pressure over the next few days. If the market is unable to for solid bull bars, that will increase the odds of a second leg down and lower the probability of a 2nd leg trap.
- However, if the bulls can get a strong reversal bar with strong follow-through, more bars will exit, increasing the odds of a deep pullback.
- There are several breakout points not far below, such as the February 2nd high and the May 1st breakout point high.
- Since the daily chart is in a trading range, the odds favor the market falling below the breakout mentioned above points, allowing the scale in bears to make money.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market formed a downside breakout during the early morning hours.
- The bears are hopeful that they will be able to get another follow-through bar on the daily chart.
- Because of how climactic the daily chart is with the downside breakout, the market may have difficulty closing below last Friday’s low.
- Today will probably have a lot of trading range price action on the open. Generally, there is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
- Most traders should consider waiting 6-12 bars on the open before placing a trade.
- Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is typical for the opening swing to form a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom before the opening swing occurs. This provides excellent risk/reward, with decent probability for traders looking for a swing trade on the open.
- Lastly, traders should pay close attention to the open of the day and last Friday’s low. The bulls want a bull close on the daily chart to halt the selling. At a minimum, the bulls want to prevent the bears from closing below Last Friday’s low.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is stalling at the May 31st low.
- The bears try hard to trap the bulls and get the downside breakout below the May 31st low.
- The bulls are trying to develop more buying pressure at important support, the May 31st low.
- The bears have done an excellent job forming a tight bear channel. It is becoming climactic, increasing a pullback to the moving average.
- The bulls hope to get a reversal soon; however, they do not have a strong buy signal bar. Without a strong buy signal bar, most bulls will wait for a strong upside breakout to buy.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Here is YouTube link if video popup blocked:
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.