Trading Update: Tuesday March 14, 2023
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini rallied yesterday and closed as a bull bar, just below the bar’s midpoint. Yesterday’s bar is enough to increase the odds of going sideways and limit the downside over the next day or two, with bear profit taking likely.
- The bulls want a 2nd leg trap and for the market to reverse back above the March 2nd low.
- More likely, the market will have to move sideways and form a micro double bottom before the bulls become convicted enough to buy for a swing above the March 2nd low.
- The market is currently at the same price level as the close of last year, which is where the market had a lot of two-sided trading for most of December 2022.
- It is possible that the recent large selloff on the daily chart was a sell vacuum test of last year’s close, and the market may have to go sideways for several bars.
- The bears see the selloff down to March 2nd as a bull flag and the recent selloff as a bear breakout below the bull flag. The bears want a market fall for a measured move down from the February 2nd high to the March 2nd low, which projects down to around the 3,700 price level.
- At the moment, the odds are that the first reversal up from the recent selloff will fail and lead to a 2nd leg down.
- The bulls need to demonstrate strength and close the March 2nd breakout point. This means the bulls need to develop more buying pressure to reverse the recent bear breakout.
- Overall, traders should expect sideways for a few days as more bears take partial profits near the 2022 close.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 45 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market has been in a trading range for most of the overnight price action.
- The 5:30 AM PT report was released with a large doji bar on a 15-minute chart. This will increase the probability of sideways trading on the open.
- Today will probably have another bull close due to the daily chart. This means that traders will look to buy below the open of the day as long as the selloff is not that strong and far below the open.
- As I often say, most traders should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trade during the day session. In general, the 6th bar has a 50% chance of the low or the high of the day being in for the rest of the day. This can allow a trader to structure a trade with decent math.
- Most traders should try and catch the opening swing trade that usually begins before the end of the second hour. The swing trade usually begins after a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. This means traders can wait for a credible stop entry after one of the abovementioned patterns and hold at least two legs.
- Another benefit to trying to catch the opening swing is that at least 40% of the time, the opening swing trade will double the initial opening range.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The bulls got a bull close completely above the moving average. This is good for the bulls and a sign that the market is transitioning into a trading range.
- The bulls want an upside breakout above the February high and a resumption of the bull trend.
- The bears want the market to form a lower high major trend reversal and form 2nd leg down from the February selloff.
- More likely, the market is evolving into a trading range and will go sideways for several bars as the bulls fight for trend resumption and bears fight for trend reversal (major trend reversal).
- Overall, the bulls have three consecutive bull bars and will probably get at least a small 2nd leg up. This will probably limit the downside for the next couple of days.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day review
- Live stream video trial replacement of end of day review coming soon.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
Why is buying above bar 11 a blue box setup on March 14? Thanks
A breakout and likely continuing bull trend.