Trading Update: Monday November 28, 2022
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Emini bulls need to get strong close above the November 15 high and the bears want to prevent this.
- Last week, the bulls did a good job testing the November 15 high; however, see Friday’s rally as a failed breakout of the 4,000 considerable round number. This means the bears will sell above 4,000, betting that the market will oscillate around that price level.
- The market is so close to the September 12 low that it may have to get there. The problem the bulls have is that there may be more sellers above the November 15 low than buyers.
- The market does not have to stop at the September 12 low. It can continue higher to the August 26 high, which is the start of the channel.
- The daily chart is clearly in a trading range, meaning the bears have a credible argument. The bears see two legs up after a breakout above a wedge that ended on November 1.
- The bears want increased selling pressure and a test of the November low.
- Overall, the bulls have two consecutive decent bull trend bars and an opportunity to get a successful breakout above the November 15 high. However, the bears know this and will try their best to prevent the bulls from getting a successful upside breakout.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 40 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The market has sold off since the Globex session open and is beginning to stall at the 4,000 considerable round number. Traders should pay attention to 4,000 as it will likely continue to be a significant price level for most of the day.
- As always, most traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars before placing a trade. The market will likely have a lot of limit order trading on the open, which increases the odds of going sideways.
- Breakouts on the open can quickly reverse, so traders should assume that there is a 50% chance the initial move will fail and go the other way.
- Traders can also wait for a credible entry as a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Overall, traders should expect the bulls to become disappointed today or tomorrow. Traders should expect a close below the open either today or tomorrow to disappoint the bulls.
Friday’s Emini setups
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is trying to close above the November 15 high as a sign of strength.
- The bears did an excellent job getting three consecutive bear bars on November 21. This increases the odds that more sellers are above the November 15 high than buyers.
- Even though the bears were able to get three consecutive bear bars, the market is still Always In Long, and the odds favor higher prices.
- The bulls are starting to collect multiple bull closes above the 2017 low, a sign of strength.
- The bears see the November rally as a test of the 2017 low. Those bears want to develop more selling pressure at the 2017 low. Next, they want a test down to the 1.000 considerable round number and the November 10 low.
- The bulls have a high buy signal bar formed last Friday following three consecutive bull bars. However, the high 1 is a bear doji bar which increases the odds of sellers above. It is also at the price level (November 15) where the bulls previously failed.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day review
- Chart and EOD Review will be posted mid-day today (November 29th).
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
Do you intend to update November 22 and 23 end of the day emini charts? They weren’t uploaded
Yes, I plan to get everything caught up, most likely today. Thank you for the reminder of these emini charts.
b18 today was a bear inside bar after the b17 BO below LoD. Can b18 be considered the FT bar after the BO? And in general can inside bars be considered legitimate FT bars?
Hi Angela. That bear inside bar 18 normally would be a good sell setup however you were at the LOD at the time and after 3 clear thrusts down so it was risky. Momentum was lacking there. My opinion is that inside bars are not follow through bars.
Day looked FOMC style. First part demonstrated erratic behaviour with lots of weak follow throughs, bulls bought every lower low. And a lot of wicks. After the Williams/Bullard speech (after the dust settled around midday reversal) much more pronounced body bars and typical small pullback bear trend. Me left the building however by then…
An inside bar is a bad follow through bar.