Emini Bears Trying to Prevent Strong Close above November 15

Trading Update: Monday November 28, 2022

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• Emini bulls need to get strong close above the November 15 high and the bears want to prevent this.
• Last week, the bulls did a good job testing the November 15 high; however, see Friday’s rally as a failed breakout of the 4,000 considerable round number. This means the bears will sell above 4,000, betting that the market will oscillate around that price level.
• The market is so close to the September 12 low that it may have to get there. The problem the bulls have is that there may be more sellers above the November 15 low than buyers.
• The market does not have to stop at the September 12 low. It can continue higher to the August 26 high, which is the start of the channel.
• The daily chart is clearly in a trading range, meaning the bears have a credible argument. The bears see two legs up after a breakout above a wedge that ended on November 1.
• The bears want increased selling pressure and a test of the November low.
• Overall, the bulls have two consecutive decent bull trend bars and an opportunity to get a successful breakout above the November 15 high. However, the bears know this and will try their best to prevent the bulls from getting a successful upside breakout.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 40 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The market has sold off since the Globex session open and is beginning to stall at the 4,000 considerable round number. Traders should pay attention to 4,000 as it will likely continue to be a significant price level for most of the day.
• As always, most traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars before placing a trade. The market will likely have a lot of limit order trading on the open, which increases the odds of going sideways.
• Breakouts on the open can quickly reverse, so traders should assume that there is a 50% chance the initial move will fail and go the other way.
• Traders can also wait for a credible entry as a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
• Overall, traders should expect the bulls to become disappointed today or tomorrow. Traders should expect a close below the open either today or tomorrow to disappoint the bulls.  

Friday’s Emini setups

Brad created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday (market early close). I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD is trying to close above the November 15 high as a sign of strength.
• The bears did an excellent job getting three consecutive bear bars on November 21. This increases the odds that more sellers are above the November 15 high than buyers.
• Even though the bears were able to get three consecutive bear bars, the market is still Always In Long, and the odds favor higher prices.
• The bulls are starting to collect multiple bull closes above the 2017 low, a sign of strength.
• The bears see the November rally as a test of the 2017 low. Those bears want to develop more selling pressure at the 2017 low. Next, they want a test down to the 1.000 considerable round number and the November 10 low.
• The bulls have a high buy signal bar formed last Friday following three consecutive bull bars. However, the high 1 is a bear doji bar which increases the odds of sellers above. It is also at the price level (November 15) where the bulls previously failed.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

Brad created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day review

• Chart and EOD Review will be posted mid-day today (November 29th).

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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