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Emini Bears Want Close below November 1 Breakout Point

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Trading Update: Tuesday November 29, 2022

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini failed to break out above the November 15 high and sold off, breaking under the 4,000 big round number. The Emini bears want close below the November 1 breakout point.
  • The 4,000 big, considerable round number is such a significant price that traders should expect to oscillate around it for some time.
  • The bears want to get a close below the November 1 breakout point gap. This would be a sign of strength by the bears and increase the odds of a test down to the November lows.
  • While the bulls have done an excellent job with the rally that began at the October low, and the bulls have targets above, the bears are creating decent selling pressure.
  • The targets above include the September 12 low and high (same day). Since the market is in a trading range, it could sell off down to the November low before the rally begins, which tests the September 12 price level. The market does not have to stop at the September 12 magnet. It could try all the back to the August high as well.
  • Overall, traders will pay attention to see if the bears can get another bear close today. If the bears can achieve that, it will increase the odds of getting a close below the November 17 low and a measured move down to the November low.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is down 1 point in the overnight Globex session.
  • The market has been going sideways during most of the Globex session.
  • As always, Traders should expect a lot of trading range price action on the open. Traders must be patient and consider waiting for 6-12 bars before placing a trade.
  • Often, the open range can have huge bars that quickly reverse. It is essential to ensure one is not buying high or selling low in a trading range unless the context makes sense, such as a strong breakout.
  • If the market is going to for an intense trend day, there will be plenty of time to enter the trend’s direction.
  • It is tempting to see a day like yesterday and think that if one gets shorts and holds all day, they will catch a big move. While that is true, yesterday is an outlier, unlike most days. Most days have over 4 hours of sideways trading.
  • This means traders should assume that all breakouts will fail until there is a clear, strong breakout with follow-through.
  • Traders can also wait for a double top/bottom, or a wedge top/bottom, before looking to place a trade.
  • Traders need to pay attention to the open of the day as well. The day is likely to have a lot of trading range price action, which means the open of the day will likely be a magnet all day.
  • Overall, the bears, want today to be another bear close; however, more likely, today will do something to disappoint the bears.

Yesterday’s Emini setups (Yesterday’s chart will be updated midday today)

Brad created the SP500 Emini chart.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Stalling at the 2017 Low
  • The EURUSD is continuing to stall at the 2017 low. While the bulls had a strong breakout with follow-through on November 10 and 11, the market has been sideways for 12 bars after the breakout.
  • This increases the odds of the market being much closer to neutral and the bulls only having a slight advantage in probability. If the bulls were mighty, the market would be racing to a higher price and not going sideways.
  • The bears see the November 10 and 11 bull breakouts as a vacuum test of the 2017 low. These bears try their best to convince traders that they are in control. They can do this by causing the market sideways and developing more bear closes.
  • The bears see yesterday as a double top with November 15. Yesterday was also an outside down bar, which increases the odds of the market going sideways. Outside bars typically act more like trading range bars than trend bars.
  • Even if the bears get a downside breakout, bulls will buy it after a couple of legs down, betting on continued trading range price action. The daily chart has been in a bear channel for over a year and a half. Bear channels typically convert into trading ranges, which has happened over the past two months. This means the odds favor higher prices and test previous lower highs in the bear channel.
  • Overall, traders should expect the market to continue sideways to up. However, if the bulls do not get an upside breakout soon, the likelihood of a downside breakout that tests the November 10th low will increase.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

Emini bull trap and failed breakout followed by major bear surprise and a parabolic wedge sell climax that led to trending trading range day

Al created the SP500 Emini chart.

End of day video review

    See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

    Trading Room

    Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

    Charts use Pacific Time

    When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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