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Emini Bears Need Breakout Follow Through below June Low

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Trading Update: Monday October 3, 2022

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The bears got a strong finish to the end of the week and month. The market closed below the June low, which is good for the bears but they need breakout follow through today.
  • The bears have an opportunity to break far below the June low and get a selloff down to the 2020 Pre-Pandemic high. However, the bulls know this and will buy aggressively, trying to prevent the bears from taking control.
  • If the bears do take control, the selloff could happen quickly.
  • Bulls see consecutive sell climaxes from the August high to the September low. Those bulls expect this selloff to lead to exhaustion and rally back to the September 6 low and the 4,000 big round number.
  • The bulls will likely need to form a better bottom here and mark the market going sideways longer to develop more buying pressure.
  • Overall, the next few days will be important. The market is at a critical decision point and is deciding if the breakout below the June low will be successful or if it will fail, leading to another test of the 4,000 big round number.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • I am traveling this morning so short blog today.
  • The Emini is up over 30 points in the overnight Globex market.
  • Traders need to be careful on the open and assume limit order market.
  • In general, wait 6-12 bars before placing a trade.
  • Overall, be patient and wait for a credible stop entry such as a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.

Friday’s Emini setups

Emini 5 Min: Opening Reversal Bear Trend Day. Breakout follow through needed.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Strong Reversal Up, Testing September 6th Low
  • The EURUSD got a sharp reversal up yesterday following a climactic selloff.
  • The reversal up is strong enough that the market will probably get back to the 1.000 big round number regardless if it falls below the September 29 low first.
  • The bulls’ targets are the September 20 high and the September 12 high.
  • The bears want this rally to be another pullback to the moving average; however, after a 3-bar micro channel, the odds favor buyers below.
  • Overall, traders should expect a second leg up after the two bull breakout bars last week and a test of the September 6 low.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action

Emini bear trap and then small pullback bull trend that stalled in triangle at 20 gap bar buy signal and then had trend resumption up in a micro channel

Al created this SP500 Emini chart.

End of day review

  • I will update at the end of the day.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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