Emini bull inside bar on weekly chart

Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures

The S&P 500 Emini futures weekly candlestick was an Emini bull inside bar closing near the high. Bears failed to create follow-through selling this week. Bulls want a consecutive bull bar next week, something they have failed to do since April. They want a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot and a wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17). Since this week was an inside bar, the Emini is in breakout mode. The bear trend line remains a resistance above. 

S&P500 Emini futures

The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart

• This week’s Emini candlestick was an Emini bull inside bar closing near the high.  
• We said last week was a weak sell signal bar and this week could trade higher without trading below last week’s low as it would be the second leg sideways to up of the pullback.
• This week, the bears failed to create a consecutive bear bar.
• Bulls see a trend channel line overshoot, and a wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17). There is now a 4-bar bull micro channel on the chart.
• The bulls will need to create a consecutive bull bar next week to increase the odds of a test of the 20-week exponential moving average or the June 2 high. 
• The bears want the Emini to stall at the bear trend line or the 20-week exponential moving average, or around or below the June 2 high and reverse lower from a double top bear flag.
• They want a breakout below the June low and a continuation of the measured move down to 3600 or lower around 3450, based on the height of the 12-month trading range starting from May 2021.
• Since this week’s candlestick was an inside bar, the Emini is in breakout mode. 
• Because this week was a bull bar closing near the high, it is a buy signal bar for next week. Next week may even gap up at the open. Small gaps usually close early.
• If the bulls get a consecutive bull bar, something they have failed to do since April, the odds of a re-test of June 2 high increases.
• Can next week trade below this week’s low? While that is possible, the prominent tail below the last 2 candlesticks increases the odds that there will be buyers below.
• We have said that the trend channel line overshoot increases the odds of a 2-legged sideways to up pullback. The Emini is currently in the pullback phase.
• For now, due to the wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17) and trend channel line overshoot, odds slightly favor sideways to up and a test near the June 2 high. 

The Daily S&P 500 Emini chart

• The Emini traded higher for the whole week following the US Independence Day holiday.
• Previously, we said should the Emini trade higher, but stall around the 20-day exponential moving average, the bear trend line or below the June 2 high, odds are the bears will return to sell the double top bear flag for a retest of the low.
• The Emini is currently stalling around the 20-day exponential moving average and just below the bear trend line.
• The bears want a reversal lower from a double top bear flag (June 28 and July 8) just below the bear trend line. 
• Bears want a break below the June low and a continuation of the measured move down to around 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range or lower, around 3450 based on the height of the 12-month trading range starting with May 2021.
• The bulls want a failed breakout below the May low. 
• They want a reversal higher from a trend channel line overshoot and a wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17).
• They see this week as a second leg sideways to up from a higher low major trend reversal.
• The bear trend line remains a resistance above. The bulls will need to break above the bear trend line with consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
• For now, because of the trend channel line overshoot and the wedge bottom (Feb 24, May 20 and June 17), odds slightly favor at least slightly higher prices.
• Traders will monitor whether the bulls can create consecutive bull bars breaking far above the bear trend and test the June 2 high for next week.
• If the Emini trades slightly higher but continues to stall around the 20-day exponential moving average or the bear trend line, odds are the bears will return to sell the lower high for a retest of June low.

Trading room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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