Trading Update: Wednesday June 28, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Emini formed a strong bull breakout on the daily chart. The breakout yesterday is strong enough that the bulls want a second leg and test of 4,500.
- The bulls want a strong follow-through bar today. However, they will probably be disappointed today.
- It was reasonable to buy the June 15th bull breakout. This means traders would buy the close of the breakout bar and scale in lower.
- There is at least an 80% chance that the bulls who bought the June 15th close and more lower will be able to avoid a loss. This is why the market may stall for a day or two at the current price level.
- There is a 60% chance that the bull who bought the June 15th close can exit back at their original entry, with a profit on the scale in the entry. This increases the odds that the market will have to reach the June 15th close over the next few weeks.
- The bears must form a major trend reversal to reverse the June rally. The bears got a decent trendline break over the past five trading days. However, it is still likely minor at best.
- This means that the bears will probably need a deeper trendline break. Even if the bears return to the June 15th high, it will probably not be enough for a major trend reversal.
- It is important to remember that most major trend reversals are minor reversals within a trading range and do not lead to major moves.
- Overall, traders should expect sideways trading over the next few weeks. The bulls want a test of the June 15th close, and the bears want a second leg down of the selloff down to June 26th.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 5 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market has gone sideways for most of the overnight session following yesterday’s strong bull breakout.
- Yesterday’s rally is strong enough to get a second leg up. This means traders should be prepared for a rally today and an attempt at a second leg up.
- Because yesterday was climactic, the morning session may have two hours of sideways trading before the bulls can get a second leg up.
- The bulls may get follow-through buying on the open. If they do, it will likely be brief and follow two hours of sideways trading.
- Overall, traders should expect a trading range open until trending behavior is present in the form of consecutive strong trend bars closing beyond support/resistance.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini opened with a small gap and went sideways for the first 9 bars of the day.
- The Bulls got an upside breakout during bar 10, leading to a rally up to yesterday’s high.
- Bar 11 was bad follow-through after the Bar 10 bull breakout and a warning that the rally may not go straight up.
- As of bar 33 (11:15), the bulls have broken above yesterday’s high. This will likely be an important level for the rest of the day.
- The bulls want the market to close above yesterday’s high, so they can claim the bulls achieved the goal of getting follow-through buying on the daily chart.
- The bears want to prevent a close above yesterday’s high.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The market reached the June 22nd Breakout point low yesterday and sold off this morning.
- The June 22nd stop entry led to a strong bear breakout below, trapping bulls who bought the June 22nd low.
- These bulls were likely so disappointed that they would be happy to return at the original entry price (June 22nd) with a profit on any scale in entries.
- The bears know this, so they likely were eager to sell with the disappointed bulls at the June 22nd low.
- The bears want a second leg down after the June 23rd bear breakout. They will try and form a strong Low 1 short below today’s bar. Next, they want a strong follow-through bar tomorrow.
- Overall, traders will pay close attention to see how determined the bears are to get a strong bear bar closing on its low today for the breakout pullback short setup.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Live stream video review with Brad Wolff. Here is YouTube link for those who cannot see video popup:
Emini End of Day Video Review for Wednesday June 28, 2023
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
thanks Brad!