Trading Update: Friday April 14, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The bulls got a surprise breakout yesterday that is strong enough to get at least a small 2nd leg up, probably – bulls want 2nd leg up.
- The market has been in a trading range for the past eight days, and with yesterday’s bar closing above the highs of the range, it will increase the odds of a measured move up (Low of April 6th, high of April 4th) and a test up to the February 2nd high.
- The bulls had a strong breakout bar yesterday but need follow-through today. Otherwise, the risk of a reversal back down will increase.
- The market is Always In Long following yesterday’s bull breakout bar.
- While the odds may slightly favor higher prices after yesterday’s breakout, if the bears get a strong bear bar closing on its low, that might be enough for the bulls to exit and for the market to test the March 22nd high.
- Since the market is in a trading range, it is possible that the bears will begin to sell aggressively and prevent the market from going above the February 2nd high. However, at the moment, the odds favor a rally getting above it.
- Overall, traders should expect a few days from sideways to up after today’s bull breakout.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 5 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The overnight Globex session has been in a tight trading range.
- There is a 75% chance of at least two hours of sideways trading beginning before the end of the second hour. There is also a 50% chance of buying on the open, lasting for a brief period, followed by two hours of sideways trading.
- Traders should expect a lot of trading range trading today. The bulls want a strong follow-through bar today. However, that is unlikely.
- The bears want today to be a strong bear trend day, completely reversing the rally from yesterday.
- While this is also unlikely, the probability of a bear trend day will increase if the bears start getting several consecutive strong bear bars on the open.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance is important. Traders should be mindful of a possible surprise breakout later in the day as the market decides on the close of the weekly chart.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD now has three consecutive strong bull closes. The bulls want a successful breakout above the February high and for the market to rally for some kind of measured move up of the two-month-long trading range.
- More likely, the bulls will be disappointed soon, and the market will fail to break out far above the February high.
- The bears want the market to form a higher high major trend reversal. However, since the market has three consecutive bull bars, the bears need to develop more selling pressure for traders to be convinced the bears have taken control.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.