Emini bulls want test of April 18 low

Trading Update: Friday April 29, 2022

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• Yesterday was a reminder that the market is in a trading range, and the bulls want test of the April 18 low soon, which is the breakout below the wedge bottom.
• The bulls had a micro double bottom (April 25 and April 27), and the market bounced yesterday, testing the close of April 25.
• The bears want the market to test the February low; however, the bulls are getting strong bull bars closing near their highs, which will increase the odds of more sideways.
• It is still possible the bears get the breakout below February and a test of 4,000, or the measured move down from the February – March trading range, which would test 3,800 and close the gap on the daily chart back from March 2021.
• Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important.
• The week’s open is 4,244, which will likely be a magnet all day as bulls and bears fight over a close above or below the open of the week.
• As always, traders should be open to the possibility of a strong move in late in the day due to the final hours of the weekly chart.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 28 points in the overnight Globex session.
• As stated above, traders should pay attention to 4,244, which is the open of the week. This will likely be an important price level for most of the day.
• The market will gap down, so traders should be open to the possibility of an inside day closing within yesterday’s range.
• Overall, traders should expect a limit order market and a trading range open.
• As always, most traders should wait for a credible stop entry such as a wedge bottom/top, a double bottom/top, or a strong breakout with follow-through.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The bulls finally got a bar to go above the high of the previous day on the daily chart.
• The market will likely test the 2020 low (1.0636). Scale in bulls likely bought here and were willing to scale in lower, confident the market would get back to the 2020 low.
• The market has six consecutive bear bars, so the first reversal up will probably be minor and lead to sideways. The bulls will likely need to form a double bottom below they can expect a reversal up.
• The current April 22 – April 28 selloff is the best-looking selloff since April 2021. This increases the odds of this selloff being exhaustion late in a move and that the market will ultimately reverse up, testing the April 22 high.
• The April 22 selloff is also a possibly failed breakout of an even broader channel. This means the odds ultimately favor a test of the top of the bear trendline above (red line).
• Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important to look at.
• This week is the biggest bear bar since 2021 which means likely exhaustion. The bears want this week to close with as little a tail as possible and below the 2020 low to demonstrate strength.
• Most likely, this week will have a disappointing close for the bears.
• The bulls know a bull close this week is not likely, which means they will try for a close above the 2020 low or above this week’s midpoint, which corresponds to the 2020 low price level.
• Overall, traders should pay close attention to the 2020 low and expect that price level (1.0636) to act as a magnet for most of the day.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day summary

• Today was a small pullback bear trend day.
• The market tested the moving average around 7:00 PT and sold off, making the market always in short.
• The bears got a bear breakout below the neckline of the double top (bar 4 low) and a measured down to around 8:00 PT.
• The bears ultimately got a measured move down of the high of the day to the low of 8:15.
• The bulls tried several times to reverse the market; however, the bulls were unable to get a strong bull close above the moving average, and without a strong trendline break, the odds favored more sideways to down.
• One thing interesting to note was that the market only had 2 closes above the moving average all day. This is a sign of an exceptionally strong trend day. Look mast at most trending days, and you will find at least 3-4 closes above/below the moving average at a minimum.
• Overall, today was a strong bear trend day, and the bulls were never able to take control of the market.
• The bears got a strong close on the daily chart. The Emini will likely reach the February low early next week.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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