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Emini Climactic Expect Rally Testing 4,400

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Trading Update: Tuesday June 27, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The recent selloff on the daily chart is getting climactic. This increases the odds that the market will rally to 4,400 lasting a day or two.
  • The bears have done an excellent job getting a selloff over the past several days following a test of the 4,500 big round number.
  • The selloff is strong enough that the first reversal up will likely be minor and lead to a second leg down.
  • All the bulls who bought around the June 15th close are trapped. Many of those bulls likely scaled in lower, which increases the odds that the market will allow those bulls who bought the June 15th close out of their trades with a profit.
  • While June 15th was a climactic bull breakout late in a rally, buying it was reasonable, especially if one was willing to use a wide stop and scale in lower. This means there is an 80% chance those scale-in bulls will be able to exit breakeven on their entire trade.
  • There is a 60% chance that the market will reach the June 15th close and allow those scale-in bulls to exit back at their original entry (June 15th).
  • Overall, traders should expect a pullback over the next couple of days as bears will probably take profits and look to sell higher. The bulls know this and will probably look to buy for a scalp as well.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 8 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The 60-minute Globex chart has been in a broad bear channel for several days. The odds are that the market will rally soon and begin testing prior lower highs.
  • Traders should be prepared for the market to close above the day’s open.
  • As I often say, trades should expect the first 6-12 bars to have a lot of trading range price action. This means that there is no rush on trading the open. By waiting for at least 6 bars, traders will gain more certainty on the type of day unfolding.
  • Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that often beings before the end of the second hour.
  • There is a report at 7:00 AM PT, so traders should be mindful and consider being flat going into the report.
  • The most important rule when trading is to be open and ready for anything. No matter what you think will happen, you must be prepared for the opposite.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Buy Climax Then Bear Spike and Channel

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Trading Range Price Action
  • The EURUSD continues to go sideways following the June 2nd bear breakout.
  • The bulls had a strong bull breakout on June 15th. However, the problem the bulls had was that the June 15th breakout was within an overall trading range. This increased the probability that the bull breakout would fail, leading to more sideways trading.
  • While the bears did a good job with the June 23rd breakout bar, it is not enough to make the market form a bear trend. It is enough to halt the buying and increase the chances that the market is in a trading range.
  • Overall, traders should expect the market to continue to go sideways as traders decide if the market will get a breakout above June 22nd or below June 23rd. Traders should assume the probability is neutral.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Lower Low DB Then Small Pullback Bull Trend From Open

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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