Emini Hesitation by the Bulls

Trading Update: Tuesday March 18, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini formed a follow-through bar yesterday. However, it has a tail above the bar, indicating weakness by the bulls. This is a sign of hesitation by the bulls and increases the odds of sideways trading
• The bulls will see the past three trading days as a strong enough reversal that the odds favor buyers below and a 2^nd leg up.
• The bears are trying to reverse the market today and create disappointment for the bulls. They hope the recent rally is a minor reversal leading to a new low below March 13^th.
• The bears need to close on their low today to have a chance for tomorrow, leading to lower prices. Even if it does close on its low, buyers will probably not be far below.
• The bulls are hopeful that today will form a tail below, increasing the odds of buyers below.
• Overall, the daily chart is still oversold, increasing the odds of a rally and test of the moving average.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The Bears sold off and formed a bear trend from the open. However, the first three bars were big bear bars. This is typically not how bear trends behave, which increases the odds of a trading range and not a bear trend lasting all day.
• Yesterday’s low is important. It is a bad sell signal bar on the daily chart and increases the odds of buyers below.
• The bears will try their best to create a bear bar closing on today’s low; however, the odds are against them.
• The bulls want today to form a reversal up and, at a minimum, have formed a tail below the bar on the daily chart.
• As of bar 12, the odds favor a test back to yesterday’s low at a minimum.
• Overall, today will probably not remain a bear trend lasting all day. The bulls have an opportunity to demonstrate strength and get a reversal up. This would further damage the odds of a bear trend lasting all day.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

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EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD formed a strong bull breakout back in early March. The bears formed a two-bar reversal on March 13^th. However, the context was bad for the bears, and it led to pullback and reversal.
• The daily char is Always In Long, and the odds favor higher prices, even if there is a pullback first.
• The risk is getting big for the bulls, which increases the market going sideways or getting a deeper pullback soon.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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