Trading Update: Friday November 10, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini will likely try to form a High 1 buy setup after yesterday’s large bear breakout bar on the daily chart.
- The breakout that began on October 27th is strong enough to likely get a second leg up, which means traders will look to buy any pullback.
- Because the market is below the October 7th high, it is still in a possible trading range. This means sellers might be above today’s high 1 buy setup, assuming one forms.
- It is typical for High 1 buy setups, which are generally trend resumption patterns, but they often lead to pullbacks first. If today forms a High 1 buy signal bar, there will probably be sellers above, at least for a scalp. However, buyers will likely come in near the low of yesterday’s bar.
- today may be another bear trend bar; however, if it is, it will likely be a disappointing bear bar.
- The bulls are hopeful that today forms a strong High 1 buy signal bar, closing on its high. Next, the bulls want Monday to be a strong entry bar following the High 1 buy setup, trapping bulls out and bears who sold above the High 1.
- The bulls will probably get a second leg up and a test of the September 1st high, which is the start of the bear channel.
- Overall, the odds favor today, disappointing the bears after yesterday’s bear trend bar. However, the bears will probably get a brief second leg down after today’s bar. The second leg down can be just one bar.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 20 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Emini formed a bull breakout over the past two hours on the 60-minute Globex chart. This increases the odds of a second leg up.
- The bears will try and form a large 2nd leg trap with the recent rally on the Globex chart. If this happens, they will need to first halt the buying. Otherwise, the odds favor a second leg up.
- As always, traders will expect the U.S. Session open to have a lot of trading range price action. As I often say, most traders should consider not trading for the first 6 – 12 bars. This is because the open often forms a trading range and forms multiple failed breakouts.
- Traders should consider trying to catch the opening swing that often begins after the end of the second hour. It is typical for the opening swing to begin after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Because today is Friday, weekly support and resistance are important. Traders should be mindful of a possible surprise breakout late in the day as traders decide on the close of the weekly chart.
- Traders should pay attention to the midpoint (4,383.5) of yesterday’s bar, as it will likely act as resistance.
- Overall, traders should expect a trading range open until proven otherwise.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD daily chart is deciding on the fate of the recent upside breakout.
- The bulls want a second leg up, and the bears want a bull trap, followed by a strong bear reversal.
- At the moment, the odds favor a second leg up. However, the past four trading days have disappointed the bulls, which will increase the odds of sideways trading.
- Bulls want today to form a bulls reversal bar after yesterday’s outside down bar. The odds will still favor sideways trading even if today develops a bull reversal bar.
- The bears want to form another bear trend bar today, increasing the odds of lower prices.
- Overall, the odds favor the bear becoming disappointed with today.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.